***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.05.2016.-22.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 10.1 16.9 13.1 89.4 52.5 46.6 12.2 15.3 21.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 7.1 14.3 10.8 88.3 58.6 47.7 9.5 12.8 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 7.6 12.2 11.2 75.4 51.5 42.2 9.0 11.9 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 16.3 12.8 12.7 76.6 51.0 44.5 8.3 12.7 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 19.1 16.4 12.2 74.9 52.8 43.8 10.2 16.0 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 14.0 11.0 13.4 73.7 48.6 43.1 5.5 11.5 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 5.8 15.1 11.4 91.1 60.7 48.3 5.7 12.6 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 12.0 16.7 13.4 72.4 46.6 40.0 12.3 18.5 27.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 14.7 13.9 13.6 75.5 53.9 43.4 7.5 13.1 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 17.6 14.1 15.0 74.5 48.5 41.2 8.6 14.3 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.5 13.0 11.4 74.9 50.8 42.2 3.7 12.5 18.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 12.2 8.7 10.9 69.3 47.6 40.7 5.8 9.3 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 12.8 10.6 11.8 69.3 49.5 42.3 5.5 10.6 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 9.6 18.4 15.0 74.2 46.8 42.1 9.0 18.6 22.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.4 8.3 12.2 81.4 51.7 45.9 4.4 7.4 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 15.3 9.9 10.8 69.0 48.6 42.3 7.7 11.0 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.5 11.6 10.5 89.6 60.4 47.1 3.5 8.6 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 18.5 15.5 15.9 71.1 49.7 40.5 7.8 15.6 21.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 8.8 19.2 11.0 83.9 56.7 46.1 10.7 16.1 20.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 10.0 13.5 15.3 73.2 46.7 39.7 10.2 15.1 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 10.4 18.3 12.6 77.7 53.2 43.6 8.6 18.2 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 6.6 12.6 11.4 88.9 57.3 46.8 5.7 10.3 17.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 6.7 14.5 11.2 75.0 52.7 43.2 6.5 12.5 20.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 9.5 14.5 13.6 68.9 48.5 40.5 12.6 14.7 19.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 16.2 13.6 15.2 87.5 54.6 46.8 7.5 12.2 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 5.4 9.4 10.3 66.1 48.5 42.1 3.0 9.6 17.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 17.6 17.9 15.1 92.1 56.3 48.1 8.1 14.6 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 12.0 10.4 12.2 76.0 50.4 44.0 7.4 10.4 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.5 17.3 15.6 72.9 49.5 40.5 12.8 17.4 30.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 8.6 13.1 11.3 87.4 58.0 47.5 9.2 12.1 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------