***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.05.2016.-15.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 4.4 14.5 17.8 101.5 61.5 52.5 3.6 9.0 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.8 8.5 16.3 90.8 56.1 49.1 3.7 6.5 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 11.0 14.4 17.3 99.5 58.7 52.2 2.2 8.4 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.8 19.3 19.9 111.9 60.1 52.5 2.8 11.0 24.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.2 12.8 20.1 120.4 66.2 55.1 3.0 8.3 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.7 17.9 23.4 119.3 63.6 55.6 7.1 8.5 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.9 7.4 16.2 90.2 57.7 48.8 2.5 4.1 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 19.8 20.8 22.2 126.3 66.8 59.1 9.4 18.3 20.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.2 12.5 21.0 117.8 67.4 55.2 3.7 6.4 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 12.0 16.2 23.9 123.5 66.3 58.0 7.7 10.4 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.0 12.2 19.1 127.4 68.6 57.9 3.8 6.9 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 10.2 13.1 19.6 125.3 67.0 57.4 4.5 7.7 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.5 9.1 21.8 112.6 62.6 53.4 3.2 7.1 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.8 13.7 23.6 102.4 59.4 52.6 3.0 10.1 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.5 17.5 101.9 58.7 50.5 3.4 8.3 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.3 11.9 20.3 120.2 65.6 55.0 2.7 8.4 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.4 11.4 16.5 95.5 57.8 50.2 3.1 7.8 18.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 14.6 17.3 25.5 116.3 66.1 56.5 6.6 12.1 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 13.8 14.8 16.7 92.5 57.0 49.6 6.0 11.7 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.4 14.2 25.2 126.3 68.0 58.8 4.1 7.3 13.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 13.4 17.0 18.7 109.5 65.8 54.6 2.4 9.9 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.1 11.1 16.6 92.1 54.9 48.7 4.2 7.2 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 10.5 10.6 17.4 96.7 60.1 51.5 2.8 8.3 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.7 15.8 21.3 101.6 60.8 52.8 5.2 11.0 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.6 20.0 103.4 60.6 53.1 5.3 10.0 19.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.1 12.0 19.3 110.1 64.9 53.7 3.6 6.0 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 4.7 13.0 19.1 100.0 61.4 52.4 4.1 9.2 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.0 12.2 19.6 114.5 61.5 53.2 3.5 7.8 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 20.2 23.3 25.0 118.0 65.3 56.6 7.1 17.0 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.7 8.5 16.8 93.3 57.0 50.3 2.2 7.4 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------