***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.05.2016.-08.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.3 16.6 19.2 126.9 74.4 59.0 4.7 8.2 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.1 10.0 16.0 108.4 60.9 53.3 3.4 7.2 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 14.1 16.3 18.2 125.2 69.7 60.5 3.4 8.1 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 17.6 21.1 18.6 114.1 67.9 56.3 7.8 14.8 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 13.3 14.8 19.2 122.2 69.8 59.5 5.0 6.8 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 11.1 10.7 20.4 107.5 61.4 55.2 6.9 8.9 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.5 9.2 17.0 108.2 60.4 53.9 4.0 6.0 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 27.7 31.3 18.6 106.5 62.2 55.8 15.1 23.6 32.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 16.2 17.3 19.7 126.2 70.4 61.5 2.6 8.3 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.4 15.9 20.7 118.3 67.4 60.0 7.1 9.8 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.0 12.6 18.9 108.0 64.9 56.6 5.2 7.6 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 14.7 15.1 18.3 110.9 64.7 57.1 7.7 12.9 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 11.9 14.7 20.7 111.9 63.7 57.1 6.4 10.9 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.1 23.1 21.7 122.0 68.2 60.0 6.2 13.3 22.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.4 17.6 109.0 63.9 54.4 3.8 8.1 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 10.6 12.0 19.1 107.1 63.0 55.6 4.5 9.9 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.8 6.6 15.1 94.1 52.6 48.9 3.9 6.5 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 15.4 19.6 20.9 115.8 66.9 58.5 6.7 11.8 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 13.5 15.4 16.4 116.9 64.9 56.6 4.2 10.4 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 21.0 22.0 23.2 122.4 68.7 61.6 6.2 11.9 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 17.1 19.6 19.4 133.4 74.1 61.2 3.8 7.3 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.8 11.3 15.6 101.4 60.3 51.8 5.0 6.7 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 11.8 19.4 17.5 125.4 68.2 60.4 5.2 7.6 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 21.7 18.1 19.9 120.8 68.2 59.7 4.2 12.1 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.5 17.2 22.6 125.8 71.7 58.9 2.6 7.7 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.2 11.8 17.7 98.7 55.9 51.4 8.0 10.9 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 10.1 13.3 21.4 122.2 70.4 58.8 5.0 7.8 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 11.1 13.2 17.5 110.2 64.8 55.2 6.5 9.8 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 22.2 24.0 22.1 117.1 67.2 59.2 9.0 20.0 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.5 14.1 17.0 116.8 65.4 56.7 3.1 8.6 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------