***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.04.2016.-01.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 5.8 6.8 14.7 111.8 61.2 55.2 4.1 5.2 7.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 4.9 6.3 14.0 116.7 66.9 59.6 2.0 4.0 6.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 7.6 8.9 14.1 111.8 63.3 57.5 3.4 6.2 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 8.5 10.8 15.8 101.7 59.8 54.4 3.6 7.4 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 7.1 6.7 15.2 105.0 63.4 56.6 2.6 5.4 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 11.2 9.8 14.4 90.4 52.6 48.0 4.4 9.2 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 4.9 6.9 14.1 114.6 61.8 58.0 1.5 3.5 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 15.3 16.5 17.7 92.0 56.1 51.7 8.8 13.0 20.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 6.5 8.3 15.0 105.3 64.7 57.6 2.3 4.3 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 9.0 9.2 17.8 96.7 58.2 54.3 4.3 8.1 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 5.4 5.3 14.5 94.9 60.1 53.3 2.1 4.1 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.3 9.3 13.5 84.7 53.2 49.1 2.9 7.9 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.2 8.4 12.5 85.5 49.8 48.4 4.8 8.5 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 46 54 100 14.0 15.5 19.2 121.2 71.4 63.6 6.0 8.0 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 6.3 5.1 11.6 90.5 58.3 50.7 2.0 4.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.1 11.1 13.1 94.6 59.7 51.5 2.4 6.4 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 4.9 8.7 15.1 127.6 68.8 63.0 1.8 3.5 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 11.4 12.3 21.1 113.9 66.7 60.5 3.6 10.4 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 4.9 7.0 14.0 113.2 66.8 59.0 3.1 4.2 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 9.7 10.3 22.1 109.9 60.9 57.5 6.5 8.7 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 6.0 8.1 14.4 105.7 65.0 57.2 2.3 4.9 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 5.4 9.4 16.0 132.9 73.7 65.1 2.3 4.4 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 7.8 8.2 14.5 110.8 65.9 59.2 3.5 7.2 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 6.6 9.9 17.9 117.9 68.1 60.8 3.4 5.6 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 7.3 7.5 14.6 103.9 60.7 54.6 3.6 5.9 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 5.9 3.9 12.0 80.4 52.0 48.7 2.4 3.8 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 6.7 7.2 14.9 106.2 60.7 54.1 3.2 5.7 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 6.7 4.9 13.4 92.7 57.9 50.5 1.6 3.9 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 14.3 16.6 21.8 118.2 67.7 61.5 5.9 13.1 16.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 5.5 7.1 13.9 110.1 62.2 56.8 2.9 4.5 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------