***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.04.2016.-22.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 87 13 0 100 20.6 20.5 19.4 -1.6 17.7 21.8 21.3 22.3 23.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 20.5 20.2 19.3 -1.6 17.5 23.6 21.3 22.3 24.3 30 Becej 27400G00 80 20 0 100 20.8 20.2 19.5 -1.7 14.9 22.2 21.2 22.3 23.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 77 23 0 100 13.7 13.8 17.1 -1.4 19.3 24.5 14.1 14.7 15.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 21.1 20.9 17.9 -1.5 18.2 23.5 21.4 22.6 23.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 19.6 19.5 15.9 -1.3 20.4 28.1 20.2 20.6 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 20.2 19.9 19.4 -1.5 18.8 24.2 20.8 21.8 23.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 9.0 8.6 16.1 -1.4 19.4 26.9 9.2 10.5 11.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 20.6 20.3 18.4 -1.6 18.5 23.6 20.9 21.9 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 20.6 20.3 16.9 -1.5 17.3 24.9 21.0 21.5 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 20.7 20.4 17.9 -1.4 19.9 25.7 21.2 21.8 23.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 20.1 20.0 17.1 -1.3 23.4 28.1 20.2 21.1 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 20.9 20.7 17.0 -1.4 21.2 27.4 21.1 21.9 23.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 75 25 0 100 21.0 20.1 17.9 -1.8 11.9 21.8 21.1 22.3 23.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 20.7 20.6 18.7 -1.3 19.6 25.3 21.4 22.2 23.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 77 23 0 100 21.3 21.0 17.4 -1.4 21.4 26.4 21.6 22.7 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 19.8 19.3 19.1 -1.6 18.7 24.5 20.4 21.6 23.2 29 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 20.2 19.7 16.2 -1.7 13.9 23.7 20.5 21.4 22.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 78 22 0 100 20.2 19.8 19.3 -1.7 16.0 22.9 20.9 21.6 23.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 15.0 14.3 13.9 -1.6 15.0 25.2 15.8 16.5 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 20.7 20.3 19.2 -1.7 16.8 22.2 21.1 22.1 23.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 79 21 0 100 20.3 19.8 19.0 -1.7 17.1 23.3 21.1 22.3 24.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 78 22 0 100 20.4 19.8 19.3 -1.7 14.1 22.7 21.5 22.5 23.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 20.4 19.6 17.9 -1.8 13.1 22.6 20.9 21.8 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 85 15 0 100 20.4 20.0 18.0 -1.7 15.2 20.7 21.1 22.3 23.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 20.3 20.3 16.5 -1.0 30.0 32.9 20.4 21.6 22.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 87 13 0 100 20.3 20.1 18.7 -1.6 16.3 21.2 21.1 22.1 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 20.9 21.0 17.8 -1.3 20.8 26.7 21.2 22.3 23.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 15.0 14.2 15.3 -1.7 13.8 23.5 15.5 16.6 17.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 79 21 0 100 20.4 20.2 19.4 -1.6 17.5 23.3 21.0 22.1 23.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------