***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.05.2016.-15.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 21.4 22.1 20.5 -1.2 39.1 38.0 21.5 23.4 25.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 21.6 23.0 20.6 -0.9 39.4 41.4 22.5 23.5 24.8 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 21.9 23.2 20.7 -1.2 38.4 37.6 21.5 23.9 25.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 14.0 15.0 18.3 -1.2 32.3 36.8 15.0 15.7 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 21.2 22.1 18.8 -1.4 32.1 36.0 22.2 23.6 24.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 20.1 20.2 16.6 -1.2 33.0 37.4 20.2 21.4 22.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 21.5 22.1 20.6 -0.9 38.9 41.8 21.8 23.1 24.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 9.6 9.7 17.1 -1.3 36.4 38.1 9.2 11.0 12.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 20.8 21.3 19.0 -1.4 33.5 36.0 21.3 23.2 23.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 20.4 21.1 17.8 -1.4 33.6 36.9 21.1 22.1 24.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 21.0 21.3 18.5 -1.4 33.1 36.7 21.3 22.6 23.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 20.5 20.6 18.1 -1.2 36.9 38.0 20.3 21.8 22.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 21.1 21.4 17.3 -1.3 33.9 36.9 21.3 22.2 23.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 21.5 22.6 18.9 -1.3 35.6 38.1 22.4 23.4 24.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 21.1 21.9 19.3 -1.0 34.1 37.7 21.9 22.9 25.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 21.7 22.0 18.1 -1.3 32.8 37.1 22.0 23.3 24.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 20.8 21.9 20.5 -0.8 39.6 42.7 21.2 22.3 24.5 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 20.6 20.8 17.3 -1.4 33.2 37.4 20.8 22.0 23.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 21.4 22.3 20.6 -1.0 39.1 40.3 21.5 23.1 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 15.8 16.4 14.9 -1.3 37.8 38.5 15.9 16.6 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 21.0 21.7 20.0 -1.4 35.2 36.1 21.3 23.4 24.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 21.5 22.9 20.4 -0.9 40.9 42.0 22.0 23.3 25.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 21.5 23.0 20.5 -1.1 39.2 38.9 22.6 23.5 24.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 21.1 21.6 18.9 -1.4 34.9 37.1 21.4 23.0 24.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 21.1 21.8 18.8 -1.3 34.5 36.3 21.7 23.0 24.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 20.8 21.3 17.5 -0.9 46.0 40.8 20.8 21.5 23.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 21.3 21.9 19.7 -1.2 36.9 37.8 21.3 23.4 24.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 21.0 21.8 18.6 -1.2 32.5 37.6 21.8 23.1 24.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 15.7 16.0 16.5 -1.4 35.4 37.7 16.0 17.0 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 21.4 22.6 20.6 -1.0 39.0 40.5 22.1 23.2 24.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------