***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.05.2016.-08.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 20.3 19.8 18.5 -2.0 26.8 30.1 20.0 22.1 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 20.4 20.1 18.3 -1.9 23.9 29.9 20.4 22.4 23.6 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 20.4 20.1 18.5 -2.1 24.0 29.0 20.8 22.4 23.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 12.8 12.8 15.9 -2.0 26.7 31.3 13.3 14.3 16.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 20.4 20.6 16.8 -2.1 27.8 31.1 20.8 22.4 23.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 18.9 19.1 14.8 -2.0 27.8 32.1 19.3 21.1 22.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 20.1 19.7 18.4 -1.8 27.9 30.9 19.8 21.8 23.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 7.8 7.6 14.9 -2.1 27.6 30.9 8.2 10.0 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 19.7 20.0 17.5 -2.1 26.7 30.7 20.4 21.8 23.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 19.6 20.2 15.8 -2.2 27.2 30.6 20.8 21.5 23.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 19.6 20.7 16.9 -2.1 27.9 31.2 21.0 22.0 23.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 18.8 19.6 16.0 -2.0 29.0 31.8 19.8 21.0 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 20.0 20.6 16.1 -2.0 29.2 32.1 20.7 22.0 23.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 20.3 19.9 16.8 -2.4 24.9 27.5 20.4 22.1 23.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 20.3 20.4 17.8 -1.9 25.1 30.5 21.2 21.9 22.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 20.4 20.6 16.4 -2.0 27.2 31.8 21.1 22.5 23.9 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 19.3 19.2 18.1 -1.7 27.5 31.2 20.0 20.8 23.2 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 18.9 19.6 15.0 -2.3 26.6 29.7 19.8 20.7 22.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 19.9 19.7 18.3 -2.0 22.9 28.9 20.2 21.8 23.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 14.1 13.9 12.6 -2.3 26.3 29.9 14.4 16.1 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 20.3 20.1 18.2 -2.2 25.1 29.8 20.5 22.0 23.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 19.9 19.6 17.9 -1.9 24.6 29.5 20.3 21.9 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 20.3 20.3 18.2 -2.1 25.3 28.4 20.7 21.8 23.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 19.9 19.9 16.9 -2.3 26.0 28.7 20.3 21.5 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 20.6 20.2 17.1 -2.1 27.4 29.7 20.4 22.2 23.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 19.3 20.1 15.3 -1.7 31.3 34.2 20.3 21.0 22.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 20.3 19.9 17.8 -2.0 27.1 29.8 20.6 22.2 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 20.2 20.7 16.7 -1.9 27.5 31.7 20.9 22.0 23.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 13.8 14.0 14.1 -2.4 25.6 29.4 14.2 15.8 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 20.3 19.9 18.4 -1.9 25.3 30.1 20.2 22.1 23.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------