***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.04.2016.-01.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 90 10 0 100 18.3 16.6 16.2 -3.8 5.7 10.0 19.9 21.1 22.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 95 5 0 100 16.9 15.1 16.0 -4.1 6.1 8.7 19.8 21.2 22.7 30 Becej 27400G00 94 6 0 100 17.3 14.9 16.2 -4.0 5.8 10.0 19.6 20.7 22.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 10.5 7.9 13.7 -2.9 9.5 17.1 12.6 13.9 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 18.2 14.9 14.9 -3.3 5.1 14.4 19.9 20.7 22.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 16.8 15.8 13.2 -2.5 17.4 22.7 18.1 19.3 20.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 94 6 0 100 16.9 15.4 16.0 -4.0 7.8 9.5 19.0 20.7 21.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 80 20 0 100 5.8 3.8 12.9 -3.1 9.5 17.2 6.8 8.3 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 85 15 0 100 17.5 15.2 15.7 -3.4 5.9 14.0 19.2 20.4 21.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 82 18 0 100 17.5 16.3 13.9 -3.3 7.7 15.7 19.1 20.4 21.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 17.8 15.9 15.4 -3.1 6.9 16.9 19.8 20.7 21.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 17.0 15.4 14.0 -2.9 10.0 17.8 18.6 19.2 20.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 82 18 0 100 18.0 16.5 15.0 -2.8 9.9 17.7 19.8 20.5 21.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 94 6 0 100 17.0 15.3 14.8 -4.3 5.8 9.9 19.8 20.8 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 18.2 17.4 16.4 -2.6 15.0 19.3 19.5 20.7 21.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 77 23 0 100 18.4 16.5 14.8 -3.0 7.0 17.1 20.1 21.2 22.7 30 Nis 06700G01 96 4 0 100 16.5 14.7 15.6 -4.3 5.8 8.2 18.8 20.7 22.1 30 Palic 37000G16 84 16 0 100 16.9 15.9 12.8 -3.7 7.8 13.8 18.8 20.0 21.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 96 4 0 100 16.6 14.6 16.0 -4.1 5.5 8.6 19.7 20.6 22.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 84 16 0 100 12.3 10.3 10.9 -3.5 8.3 15.1 13.5 14.8 16.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 89 11 0 100 17.4 14.7 16.3 -3.7 4.9 11.9 19.7 20.7 22.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 98 2 0 100 16.3 15.1 15.5 -4.4 3.6 7.1 19.9 21.1 22.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 94 6 0 100 16.7 14.9 15.9 -4.1 6.0 9.3 19.7 21.3 22.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 89 11 0 100 17.0 15.7 14.9 -4.0 6.5 11.6 19.2 20.6 21.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 87 13 0 100 17.1 15.0 15.3 -3.6 4.7 11.2 19.8 20.5 22.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 17.5 16.8 13.5 -2.4 17.1 21.6 18.5 19.6 20.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 91 9 0 100 17.3 15.3 15.7 -3.8 5.2 9.9 19.0 21.0 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 18.8 17.7 15.0 -2.6 14.6 20.2 19.3 20.8 22.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 84 16 0 100 12.1 10.4 12.1 -3.8 8.3 13.6 13.5 15.1 16.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 95 5 0 100 17.1 14.9 16.1 -4.0 6.2 9.2 19.6 20.9 22.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------