***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.04.2016.-22.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 9.5 9.4 10.0 -1.4 18.3 21.3 9.8 10.6 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 84 16 0 100 9.1 8.9 9.5 -1.4 15.5 20.1 9.7 10.4 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 86 14 0 100 10.8 10.5 10.0 -1.4 14.8 20.3 11.2 11.8 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 83 17 0 100 5.6 5.2 7.5 -1.2 15.7 22.3 6.1 6.9 7.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 82 18 0 100 7.8 7.7 7.9 -1.2 15.8 21.4 8.2 8.6 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 6.7 6.6 5.8 -0.8 23.5 28.4 7.1 7.7 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 84 16 0 100 9.4 9.2 9.6 -1.3 17.8 21.5 9.5 10.2 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 1.4 1.4 5.8 -1.0 19.6 24.6 1.9 2.6 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 8.8 8.7 8.2 -1.2 17.0 21.6 8.8 9.5 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 8.7 8.5 6.6 -1.1 17.0 22.1 8.9 9.4 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 81 19 0 100 8.3 8.1 7.5 -1.1 16.7 23.1 8.5 9.1 9.5 29 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 6.6 6.4 6.6 -1.0 19.7 25.2 7.0 7.6 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 80 20 0 100 7.9 7.8 6.4 -1.0 19.5 25.2 8.3 8.7 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 92 8 0 100 9.1 9.0 7.9 -1.3 14.9 18.9 9.6 10.0 10.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 9.6 9.4 9.1 -0.8 24.1 29.4 10.0 10.3 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 8.9 8.7 7.0 -1.0 18.3 24.5 9.2 10.0 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 88 12 0 100 9.5 9.3 9.3 -1.4 14.4 19.6 10.1 10.5 11.3 29 Palic 37000G16 86 14 0 100 6.8 6.7 6.0 -1.2 16.0 20.1 7.0 7.9 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 83 17 0 100 9.3 9.0 9.5 -1.4 14.1 19.7 9.8 10.1 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 78 22 0 100 3.4 3.2 4.0 -1.0 18.7 24.1 3.7 4.3 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 84 16 0 100 8.6 8.5 9.5 -1.3 16.6 21.2 8.9 9.4 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 90 10 0 100 8.7 8.4 9.3 -1.4 11.0 18.8 9.3 9.8 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 86 14 0 100 9.1 8.8 9.4 -1.4 13.2 19.8 9.3 9.9 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 89 11 0 100 8.6 8.5 7.9 -1.3 14.8 19.4 9.2 9.5 10.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 87 13 0 100 9.0 8.9 8.8 -1.4 16.7 21.1 9.5 9.8 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 7.6 7.7 6.0 -0.8 26.5 29.1 7.7 8.6 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 85 15 0 100 9.4 9.3 9.4 -1.4 17.2 21.5 9.5 10.2 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 7.7 7.6 8.0 -1.0 20.5 26.1 7.9 8.5 8.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 85 15 0 100 5.8 5.6 5.3 -1.2 15.9 20.2 6.1 6.9 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 84 16 0 100 9.4 9.2 9.7 -1.4 16.3 20.5 9.7 10.4 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------