***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.05.2016.-22.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 10.8 12.0 12.6 0.0 49.0 50.3 10.9 12.0 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 10.9 12.0 12.3 0.0 48.6 50.0 11.0 12.1 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 14.0 13.4 12.7 0.0 47.3 49.7 12.9 13.5 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.8 9.1 10.1 0.0 49.4 50.6 7.2 9.3 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.4 10.2 0.0 47.8 51.4 9.4 10.4 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 8.3 10.0 8.2 0.2 54.9 54.6 9.1 9.8 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 10.9 12.2 12.4 0.1 49.7 51.0 10.7 12.3 13.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.6 8.2 0.2 54.3 54.7 2.9 4.4 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.7 10.5 0.1 47.5 51.8 10.7 11.7 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.7 9.1 0.2 50.9 53.5 10.5 11.6 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.1 9.6 0.1 49.8 52.7 10.4 11.1 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.5 8.9 0.2 54.8 54.3 8.4 9.2 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 9.6 11.1 8.4 0.1 52.3 52.9 10.2 10.9 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.0 10.5 0.1 50.4 51.8 10.8 11.9 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.5 11.3 0.1 49.1 51.6 11.4 12.5 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.2 11.9 9.1 0.1 50.9 52.4 10.8 11.8 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 13.0 12.6 12.2 0.1 50.3 51.0 11.4 12.6 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 10.0 9.8 8.5 0.2 52.5 53.2 8.6 9.7 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.2 12.3 0.0 47.4 49.8 11.2 12.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.1 6.2 0.3 54.3 55.1 4.4 6.0 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.3 11.9 0.0 47.4 50.7 10.3 11.4 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.5 12.0 0.0 47.9 50.8 10.2 11.6 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 12.1 11.5 12.2 0.0 46.5 50.7 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.3 10.3 0.0 48.1 51.2 10.3 11.4 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 11.0 12.3 11.2 0.0 50.9 49.8 10.9 12.2 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 9.3 10.7 8.2 0.3 56.2 55.4 10.1 10.5 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 10.8 12.0 12.0 0.0 50.9 50.1 11.0 12.0 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.4 10.4 0.1 50.7 51.3 9.4 10.4 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 9.0 8.7 7.8 0.2 52.2 53.2 7.6 8.6 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.4 12.5 0.0 48.4 50.1 11.0 12.6 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------