***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.05.2016.-15.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9.5 9.6 11.0 -1.1 35.5 35.5 9.4 10.4 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 9.7 10.0 10.8 -0.9 36.9 37.5 9.7 11.3 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 11.4 11.6 11.1 -0.9 38.1 36.5 11.1 12.9 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 6.1 6.5 8.7 -0.7 37.9 38.8 6.5 7.7 9.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 7.9 8.6 8.9 -0.7 37.5 38.6 8.6 8.8 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 7.0 7.5 6.8 -0.5 39.8 41.8 7.3 8.0 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 9.5 10.1 10.9 -0.8 37.1 39.2 9.6 11.0 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 3.7 2.9 6.9 -0.5 42.3 41.7 2.1 3.4 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 8.8 9.4 9.2 -0.7 39.1 39.5 9.3 9.7 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 9.0 9.7 7.7 -0.6 40.9 40.5 9.1 10.0 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 8.7 8.8 8.3 -0.6 39.3 39.6 8.7 9.3 10.2 29 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 7.3 7.7 7.6 -0.5 41.1 41.2 7.3 8.1 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 8.3 8.9 7.0 -0.7 37.1 39.0 8.6 9.2 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.2 9.2 -0.6 40.9 41.0 9.4 10.4 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 10.0 10.0 9.9 -0.6 36.6 40.4 10.0 10.6 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 9.4 9.7 7.7 -0.6 38.9 39.5 9.3 10.1 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 10.0 10.3 10.8 -0.8 38.3 39.4 10.0 11.0 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 7.4 7.6 7.3 -0.5 42.0 41.5 7.4 8.3 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 9.8 10.4 10.8 -0.9 38.0 37.2 9.6 10.8 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 3.9 4.2 5.0 -0.4 42.0 42.4 4.1 4.4 5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 8.6 9.2 10.4 -0.9 35.5 37.5 9.1 9.9 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 9.1 10.0 10.6 -0.7 38.3 39.2 9.6 10.3 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 9.5 10.2 10.7 -0.8 41.5 38.4 9.7 10.6 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.4 9.2 9.0 -0.6 40.9 40.6 8.8 9.9 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 8.9 9.6 9.6 -1.1 32.7 35.5 9.6 9.9 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 8.3 8.7 6.9 -0.4 41.5 44.1 8.2 9.4 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 9.6 9.1 10.4 -1.0 33.0 35.9 9.1 11.3 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 8.0 8.6 9.0 -0.6 38.4 40.8 8.2 9.0 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 6.5 6.6 6.6 -0.5 39.8 41.1 6.0 7.8 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 9.6 10.3 10.9 -0.9 37.1 37.0 9.8 10.8 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------