***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.05.2016.-08.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 8.6 8.4 9.3 -1.5 25.7 30.8 8.7 9.7 10.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 8.2 7.9 8.8 -1.4 28.4 30.2 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 10.2 10.0 9.4 -1.4 28.0 30.8 10.1 11.4 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 5.2 5.2 6.8 -1.4 32.1 32.2 5.3 6.4 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 6.7 6.2 7.4 -1.4 27.8 31.5 6.6 8.4 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 5.7 5.9 5.2 -1.2 33.2 33.2 5.9 7.2 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 8.5 8.1 8.9 -1.4 28.3 30.4 8.7 9.9 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 0.6 0.8 5.1 -1.2 27.9 32.4 1.0 2.0 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 7.4 7.5 7.6 -1.2 26.6 31.6 7.9 8.4 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 7.8 7.8 6.0 -1.2 27.5 32.1 8.0 8.8 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 7.2 7.5 7.0 -1.2 29.6 32.3 7.6 8.3 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 5.8 6.0 6.0 -1.2 29.5 31.9 6.2 7.0 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 6.7 7.2 5.9 -1.2 31.9 31.9 7.3 8.0 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 8.7 8.9 7.3 -1.4 25.0 29.0 9.0 9.3 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 8.7 9.0 8.5 -1.0 32.3 34.7 9.0 9.9 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 7.9 8.2 6.5 -1.2 32.3 33.0 8.3 8.8 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 8.8 9.0 8.6 -1.4 27.2 29.6 9.2 9.9 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 6.0 5.9 5.5 -1.3 30.3 31.8 6.0 7.0 7.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 8.7 8.6 8.8 -1.4 27.3 30.0 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 2.8 2.6 3.5 -1.2 29.5 33.6 2.9 3.9 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 7.3 7.5 8.9 -1.4 26.3 30.8 7.8 8.7 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 8.2 8.2 8.6 -1.4 25.6 28.5 8.4 9.3 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 8.3 8.7 8.7 -1.4 26.3 29.8 9.0 9.4 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 8.2 8.4 7.4 -1.3 28.4 31.0 8.6 9.0 9.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 8.0 7.7 8.2 -1.6 27.3 30.9 8.4 9.4 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 7.0 7.2 5.4 -1.2 34.4 33.2 7.1 7.6 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 8.0 7.5 8.8 -1.6 26.4 30.7 8.1 10.0 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 6.4 7.3 7.4 -1.2 33.3 33.3 7.3 7.7 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 5.3 5.3 4.8 -1.3 29.9 31.7 5.4 6.3 7.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 8.2 8.0 9.1 -1.5 29.4 30.6 8.5 10.1 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------