***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.04.2016.-01.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 94 6 0 100 6.9 6.3 6.9 -2.9 8.7 12.4 8.1 9.2 9.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 97 3 0 100 6.2 2.2 6.2 -3.4 4.7 8.3 7.8 9.2 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 95 5 0 100 7.4 5.0 6.8 -3.1 7.5 9.6 9.5 11.0 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 87 13 0 100 2.3 0.1 4.4 -2.6 7.7 14.4 4.3 5.4 6.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 95 5 0 100 4.2 2.7 5.3 -2.8 7.5 10.5 6.2 7.3 7.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 4.5 4.1 3.1 -1.9 18.1 20.9 4.6 5.6 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 97 3 0 100 6.0 3.2 6.3 -3.2 5.4 9.5 7.7 8.9 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 94 6 0 100 -1.9 -3.0 2.9 -2.5 7.7 10.6 -0.2 1.0 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 98 2 0 100 5.5 3.7 5.3 -2.8 6.7 9.5 6.8 7.4 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 98 2 0 100 5.8 3.9 3.6 -2.9 6.9 8.7 7.0 7.6 8.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 94 6 0 100 5.0 3.9 5.0 -2.5 6.7 11.1 6.2 7.0 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 90 10 0 100 3.8 2.7 4.1 -2.3 8.1 13.8 4.7 5.6 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 91 9 0 100 5.1 3.8 4.2 -2.1 10.3 15.6 6.5 6.9 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 5.4 3.8 4.5 -3.4 5.7 7.0 7.1 8.3 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 6.7 6.7 6.6 -1.6 20.6 24.3 7.8 8.6 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 91 9 0 100 6.6 4.3 4.6 -2.2 10.6 15.7 7.2 8.1 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 96 4 0 100 6.2 3.7 5.8 -3.5 3.5 6.7 8.1 9.1 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 99 1 0 100 3.4 1.1 2.8 -3.2 6.0 6.9 4.5 5.7 6.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 98 2 0 100 6.0 3.0 6.2 -3.4 4.9 7.9 7.5 8.7 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 100 0 0 100 0.7 -0.9 1.3 -2.8 7.2 9.2 1.5 2.9 3.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 94 6 0 100 5.3 3.0 6.6 -2.8 7.7 10.6 7.0 7.5 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 100 0 0 100 5.8 2.8 5.9 -3.6 4.1 6.0 7.2 8.2 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 98 2 0 100 5.2 3.5 6.1 -3.4 5.5 7.7 7.2 8.3 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 98 2 0 100 4.6 3.5 4.8 -3.2 5.4 6.9 6.6 7.8 8.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 94 6 0 100 5.6 3.6 6.3 -2.8 8.9 13.0 7.1 8.2 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 83 17 0 100 5.6 4.8 3.5 -1.9 12.4 19.2 5.9 7.1 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 93 7 0 100 5.3 3.0 6.6 -2.9 9.0 13.2 7.8 8.5 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 81 19 0 100 4.4 4.2 5.2 -2.0 17.5 20.4 5.8 6.5 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 2.6 0.5 2.1 -3.2 6.2 7.1 3.7 5.0 6.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 98 2 0 100 6.2 3.1 6.5 -3.3 5.7 9.3 7.5 9.1 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------