***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.04.2017.-21.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 51.4 47.3 64.0 97.1 53.6 49.8 32.5 45.7 58.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 40.6 37.8 62.1 105.9 58.1 53.3 23.2 34.8 49.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 56.5 54.0 64.0 98.8 53.5 49.6 30.9 51.8 62.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 46.1 61.5 70.8 97.3 51.3 48.5 47.8 59.9 75.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 30.7 40.8 66.1 94.4 48.5 46.6 33.7 42.2 63.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 42.0 56.4 75.4 91.4 46.9 44.9 44.1 57.8 66.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 43.6 39.6 61.5 105.4 58.3 54.2 22.0 36.3 47.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 67.6 85.3 75.7 91.8 45.0 43.8 74.8 87.4 100.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 51.6 47.2 69.1 95.6 49.8 47.8 34.3 47.4 55.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 41.4 47.5 77.7 92.5 47.2 44.9 40.0 50.6 57.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 31.5 41.8 66.2 93.2 46.8 46.1 36.3 42.7 57.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 37.8 43.6 66.4 90.7 43.1 43.4 39.5 48.6 58.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 32.1 37.5 70.8 90.1 42.5 43.6 34.3 41.9 50.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 41.8 56.2 83.4 96.3 50.1 46.4 39.6 56.2 77.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 49.5 51.0 68.4 100.6 55.1 51.1 31.9 46.3 55.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 36.8 44.3 68.3 93.7 46.6 46.5 33.4 48.7 59.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 45.9 48.6 60.8 105.8 58.3 53.9 21.0 38.6 63.1 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 48.0 67.4 83.8 92.3 47.6 44.7 51.8 72.4 78.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 58.1 64.7 63.4 104.4 57.8 52.1 34.2 52.5 67.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 39.9 51.0 82.5 89.9 44.3 42.2 45.5 58.4 68.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 51.0 48.0 65.9 97.1 52.3 49.0 36.3 46.7 53.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 39.0 47.0 65.3 107.8 61.0 54.7 23.3 31.0 54.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 51.7 50.5 66.1 102.3 57.3 50.1 28.6 44.3 69.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 40.0 57.0 77.1 96.2 51.3 46.9 43.4 57.0 73.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 58.5 54.6 70.6 95.3 51.9 48.8 35.9 52.6 67.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 32.0 44.6 66.0 89.1 44.6 43.0 39.3 45.8 53.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 55.7 53.0 68.1 96.3 52.2 49.2 33.3 50.5 61.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 33.0 44.7 68.7 95.8 49.9 48.0 31.2 44.8 54.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 62.5 75.6 84.5 92.4 48.1 44.8 64.5 78.1 89.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 43.0 48.2 62.9 104.4 56.9 52.6 26.2 37.6 56.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------