***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.05.2017.-21.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 13.3 14.6 17.8 96.8 59.4 52.1 8.2 11.6 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.6 18.4 114.8 67.0 56.5 6.6 10.2 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.3 14.6 19.2 109.6 64.8 53.4 8.5 10.6 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 14.4 20.3 22.0 107.1 64.1 54.0 6.9 11.7 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 16.1 17.5 21.2 109.4 63.1 53.9 7.0 14.6 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 12.4 11.0 22.0 92.9 52.5 48.0 6.4 10.1 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.2 13.1 18.0 113.8 61.7 55.1 3.8 10.2 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 21.8 19.8 23.8 106.4 56.6 52.9 13.9 18.5 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.9 14.3 21.5 108.7 63.2 53.4 6.1 10.5 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.8 24.5 106.7 58.7 52.6 7.2 12.7 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.3 17.3 20.6 110.0 61.8 54.4 2.9 9.3 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 11.4 9.4 20.8 104.9 57.4 52.6 5.8 8.5 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 12.1 11.6 21.1 95.1 52.3 49.0 4.2 10.9 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 17.8 20.6 25.6 111.6 63.1 53.0 8.3 13.6 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 8.7 14.4 20.4 105.4 63.3 53.6 1.8 6.4 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 14.8 13.4 20.6 102.6 57.3 52.1 6.5 11.3 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.1 13.5 17.6 111.5 64.3 55.6 4.2 6.7 15.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.3 25.6 103.9 57.7 50.5 6.6 12.3 21.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 15.9 19.9 19.1 116.8 68.9 57.1 10.3 13.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 15.4 14.1 25.7 104.4 57.3 51.1 8.1 12.3 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.9 18.5 20.0 106.4 64.1 53.1 6.0 10.5 18.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.6 14.3 19.0 113.8 63.6 57.5 5.2 8.2 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 13.9 20.3 20.0 118.5 70.1 55.9 6.4 11.1 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 15.7 17.8 23.2 109.2 61.7 51.7 6.6 13.3 19.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 12.5 14.7 21.5 101.7 61.6 53.9 5.7 8.8 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.8 16.2 19.5 99.1 57.2 50.2 5.0 9.1 20.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 13.2 16.3 19.3 97.3 59.6 53.0 6.2 11.3 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.8 10.2 21.1 102.0 60.5 52.6 6.2 9.3 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 20.9 19.6 25.1 103.5 58.4 50.5 12.2 19.0 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 14.9 15.6 18.5 113.4 64.8 55.7 8.3 12.8 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------