***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.05.2017.-07.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 3.5 6.9 13.1 78.1 45.7 41.4 2.4 7.2 10.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.5 3.7 11.5 75.8 48.1 40.6 1.7 4.3 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 4.7 7.3 12.3 70.0 43.6 37.9 4.2 9.1 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 8.1 17.8 18.3 95.6 56.7 48.1 9.2 16.7 21.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.1 5.9 15.1 79.2 50.2 41.2 3.4 5.9 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 6.4 10.8 20.8 99.2 55.3 48.9 6.2 9.8 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.6 4.3 11.7 77.8 48.2 41.3 3.5 4.8 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 14.5 28.5 19.0 95.8 58.4 47.8 14.1 21.9 30.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.7 9.6 15.6 80.2 51.3 42.3 4.6 9.6 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 6.4 11.5 18.2 87.6 54.0 44.8 6.6 10.5 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.8 7.7 17.4 87.3 54.6 44.6 5.3 7.1 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 6.2 13.4 18.2 93.7 56.8 46.8 6.0 11.5 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.0 20.3 95.2 54.6 48.3 7.0 8.6 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 6.0 11.6 18.3 81.1 47.6 41.7 6.2 12.4 20.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.3 9.4 18.1 95.5 59.5 47.9 2.3 6.8 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.0 9.0 19.3 95.9 57.2 48.8 4.6 8.2 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.0 6.4 11.7 80.0 50.4 42.0 1.8 6.4 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 5.2 12.2 20.1 88.9 53.5 45.6 6.0 12.0 20.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.7 8.3 12.2 76.2 47.8 40.9 4.3 9.4 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 7.0 12.4 20.7 90.5 52.7 46.9 6.4 12.1 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.6 6.4 14.1 79.1 48.4 43.6 4.2 6.6 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.6 6.0 12.5 78.4 50.0 41.9 5.5 6.0 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.6 6.9 14.2 81.2 48.0 43.1 4.7 7.3 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.6 8.5 17.8 83.4 50.5 43.3 3.9 8.5 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 4.2 8.3 15.8 79.6 46.9 41.6 2.3 9.1 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 5.5 11.1 19.0 91.7 53.5 46.3 6.7 10.6 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.3 6.8 15.0 81.0 47.1 42.4 5.2 6.9 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 4.4 10.9 18.3 97.9 59.3 49.6 4.2 9.0 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.7 16.3 21.2 91.7 53.2 46.7 8.8 16.1 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.6 6.6 12.0 76.1 46.8 40.8 3.7 7.1 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------