***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.04.2017.-30.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 4.2 7.8 15.0 110.3 63.3 54.9 4.2 6.6 8.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 5.2 7.3 15.3 125.1 65.4 56.2 1.1 3.8 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 10.6 11.5 15.1 117.2 64.3 56.9 2.8 9.8 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 5.4 11.7 13.3 83.7 52.3 45.0 3.5 10.7 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.2 6.4 12.4 85.4 50.2 45.4 2.8 6.4 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 4.3 7.9 12.8 77.1 44.5 41.0 3.6 8.9 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.1 10.1 16.1 128.7 70.4 58.8 1.6 3.8 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 10.4 13.9 14.3 71.1 41.5 38.5 8.9 17.9 24.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.1 8.6 12.9 85.6 51.5 45.7 3.0 8.3 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.9 8.2 14.7 76.2 43.3 41.2 7.1 8.9 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.0 5.7 12.7 82.2 50.5 43.3 3.3 5.5 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 5.3 8.0 12.0 73.6 45.3 40.1 4.0 10.6 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 5.0 10.3 12.7 83.5 49.7 41.3 1.8 10.4 16.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.4 11.1 17.7 96.2 56.1 49.5 7.4 9.8 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.1 7.1 13.3 95.8 60.2 49.4 2.0 4.7 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.1 7.5 12.1 81.6 48.9 42.7 3.0 7.6 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 6.7 12.0 16.8 138.0 71.8 59.9 2.2 3.9 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 5.4 10.6 16.4 81.4 45.5 42.9 7.0 11.6 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 7.3 8.6 15.2 119.9 63.1 55.4 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 6.1 7.8 16.0 77.3 42.1 40.3 7.2 9.8 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.9 8.3 13.7 97.1 55.6 49.6 2.1 7.5 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 6.5 9.9 18.1 143.6 72.5 60.8 1.9 4.3 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 9.4 9.2 15.2 111.4 60.7 54.8 3.1 8.1 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.4 9.7 15.6 92.6 52.9 48.5 3.7 8.1 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.3 6.1 14.3 97.9 55.1 50.1 3.4 5.6 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.3 4.6 12.0 78.6 46.7 40.7 3.5 4.9 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 4.1 7.4 15.2 106.0 59.4 52.6 3.3 7.0 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.5 5.7 12.7 83.4 53.1 45.4 2.3 5.3 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 8.0 12.9 17.0 83.0 46.7 43.4 8.7 13.6 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.2 10.1 15.3 121.4 64.6 56.6 2.3 5.7 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------