***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.04.2017.-21.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 22.5 23.2 20.7 0.2 58.3 54.1 21.4 22.1 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 22.7 22.8 20.5 0.1 55.0 51.8 21.1 22.1 24.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 22.6 22.6 20.7 0.1 54.8 51.7 21.2 22.1 23.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 14.9 15.6 18.0 0.2 56.6 52.6 13.9 14.5 15.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 22.7 22.5 18.9 0.1 52.8 50.7 21.2 22.4 23.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 20.8 21.0 16.9 0.3 58.9 54.6 20.0 20.5 21.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 22.3 22.4 20.5 0.1 56.3 52.8 20.6 21.7 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.6 17.0 0.1 55.0 50.1 8.9 10.3 11.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 22.0 22.0 19.4 0.1 52.9 51.0 20.8 21.7 22.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 21.8 21.7 18.0 0.1 54.2 50.7 20.8 21.4 22.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 22.0 21.9 18.9 0.2 56.2 52.0 21.2 21.7 22.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 21.2 21.3 18.0 0.2 57.9 52.2 20.0 20.9 21.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 22.1 22.5 18.1 0.2 58.5 53.5 20.9 21.8 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 21.1 21.9 18.9 -0.3 48.0 44.8 20.9 22.0 23.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 22.5 22.9 19.6 0.4 61.7 56.4 21.2 22.1 23.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 22.8 23.1 18.4 0.2 57.7 53.5 21.4 22.5 23.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 22.1 21.9 20.2 0.0 52.2 50.6 20.2 21.5 23.0 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 20.4 21.4 17.2 -0.1 52.4 48.0 20.1 21.2 22.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 22.0 22.2 20.5 0.1 54.7 51.4 20.7 21.4 23.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 15.3 16.6 14.8 -0.2 49.2 46.7 15.4 16.6 17.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 22.3 21.9 20.2 0.0 51.1 49.8 20.9 21.9 23.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 22.7 22.0 19.9 -0.3 48.2 46.9 20.8 22.1 23.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 22.8 22.5 20.5 0.0 54.8 51.1 21.2 22.4 23.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 22.1 21.8 19.0 -0.1 51.4 47.8 20.7 21.6 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 22.5 22.3 19.1 0.1 53.6 51.8 21.0 22.1 23.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 21.6 22.3 17.7 0.8 68.1 61.7 20.1 21.3 22.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 22.3 22.2 20.0 0.2 57.1 53.6 21.0 21.9 23.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 22.5 22.7 18.6 0.3 58.7 54.1 21.0 22.3 23.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 15.3 16.3 16.4 -0.2 49.5 46.6 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 22.5 22.3 20.6 0.1 55.6 52.3 20.8 21.9 23.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------