***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.05.2017.-21.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 21.7 24.6 22.2 0.2 54.7 51.1 21.7 24.0 25.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 22.6 25.1 22.2 0.3 55.8 51.1 22.7 24.7 26.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 25.5 25.3 22.4 0.1 54.2 50.7 22.4 25.0 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 15.3 18.4 19.8 0.1 53.1 49.6 14.8 17.7 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 22.9 25.0 20.3 0.0 54.6 49.6 22.5 24.9 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 23.5 23.1 18.3 0.2 55.5 51.8 22.0 22.9 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 22.4 24.6 22.3 0.3 55.9 51.5 22.7 24.2 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 10.0 12.9 18.7 0.0 56.4 50.7 11.7 12.5 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 22.0 24.7 20.6 0.0 54.5 49.9 22.3 24.3 25.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 21.7 24.6 19.4 0.1 55.4 50.6 22.3 23.9 25.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 22.2 24.9 20.1 0.1 57.1 51.0 22.6 24.2 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 20.8 23.5 19.7 0.1 58.0 51.2 21.7 23.0 24.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 24.9 24.8 19.0 0.2 57.1 51.1 22.7 24.4 25.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 22.4 24.8 20.3 -0.2 50.1 48.9 22.0 24.8 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 22.9 25.3 20.8 0.3 55.9 50.9 23.4 24.7 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 22.7 25.1 19.7 0.2 57.0 51.1 23.0 24.6 25.9 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 22.0 24.4 22.1 0.2 53.9 50.5 22.3 23.8 25.4 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 21.0 23.8 18.9 0.0 53.1 50.3 21.5 23.4 25.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 22.1 24.5 22.3 0.2 55.3 50.8 22.1 24.2 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 15.8 18.4 16.4 -0.1 51.3 49.5 17.4 18.3 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 25.0 24.6 21.5 0.0 52.1 49.4 22.2 24.5 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 22.2 24.9 21.7 0.0 52.0 48.6 22.8 24.8 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 22.1 25.0 22.1 0.1 53.5 50.5 22.5 24.6 25.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 21.5 24.2 20.4 -0.1 52.2 49.8 22.0 24.0 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 25.2 25.0 20.4 0.0 51.1 49.5 22.2 24.7 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 21.4 24.3 19.4 0.7 62.0 55.2 22.1 23.8 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 25.1 25.2 21.4 0.2 54.0 50.7 22.4 24.7 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 22.4 25.3 20.1 0.2 55.4 50.6 22.5 24.4 26.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 15.6 18.7 18.0 -0.1 51.7 49.7 16.8 18.4 21.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 22.5 24.8 22.3 0.3 56.2 51.2 22.3 24.5 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------