***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.05.2017.-14.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 24.8 24.9 21.8 0.9 65.6 59.2 21.2 23.3 24.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 24.4 24.3 21.8 1.1 66.2 60.8 22.0 23.0 24.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 23.8 24.6 22.0 0.9 64.9 58.5 21.2 23.4 24.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 16.5 16.7 19.4 0.7 61.1 57.2 14.4 16.0 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 23.8 24.6 20.0 0.7 62.8 57.1 21.4 23.5 24.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 22.2 22.5 17.9 0.6 62.4 56.3 19.9 21.7 22.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 24.1 23.9 21.8 1.1 66.2 60.9 21.7 22.5 23.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 11.4 11.6 18.5 0.8 63.4 57.2 9.1 11.1 11.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 23.4 23.7 20.4 0.8 63.4 56.9 20.6 23.2 23.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 22.9 23.4 19.2 0.8 63.4 57.1 20.6 22.6 23.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 23.1 23.8 19.8 0.8 64.0 57.9 20.5 22.7 23.8 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 22.3 23.3 19.4 0.9 65.0 58.3 20.0 22.0 23.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 22.9 23.4 18.7 0.8 63.3 58.4 20.6 22.5 23.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 23.6 23.9 20.2 0.8 62.1 57.5 22.1 23.3 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 22.7 23.8 20.2 0.7 61.4 58.0 21.7 22.1 24.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 23.8 24.1 19.4 0.8 63.3 58.2 21.3 23.5 24.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 23.7 23.7 21.6 1.0 64.9 60.6 21.1 22.0 23.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 22.5 23.0 18.8 0.8 61.5 56.6 20.2 22.2 23.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 24.0 23.8 21.9 1.0 65.8 60.4 21.4 22.6 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 17.4 17.5 16.2 0.7 61.3 56.2 15.7 17.0 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 23.6 24.1 21.2 0.7 63.2 56.6 20.6 23.1 24.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 23.3 24.1 21.3 0.8 63.7 59.2 21.6 22.8 24.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 23.5 24.1 21.9 1.0 64.9 60.0 21.9 23.1 24.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 23.1 23.7 20.2 0.8 61.7 57.1 20.8 22.7 23.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 23.4 23.9 20.0 0.7 62.8 57.8 21.1 22.8 24.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 23.2 23.4 19.2 1.4 71.7 63.7 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 24.1 24.0 21.0 0.9 65.1 59.3 21.0 22.8 24.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 23.3 24.0 19.7 0.7 60.5 57.3 21.6 22.9 24.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.5 18.0 17.8 0.7 60.4 56.3 15.6 17.1 18.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 24.2 23.9 21.8 1.0 65.5 60.1 21.7 22.9 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------