***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.05.2017.-07.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 23.0 22.7 20.3 0.4 56.2 55.2 20.9 22.5 23.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 22.9 22.6 20.1 0.2 53.1 54.2 21.0 22.3 23.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 22.9 22.4 20.2 0.1 50.7 52.0 21.1 22.4 23.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 15.2 14.7 17.2 0.0 51.6 51.3 13.1 14.7 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 22.6 22.1 18.2 -0.1 48.3 49.4 21.1 22.2 23.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 19.1 20.4 15.9 -0.2 48.0 48.8 19.7 20.5 21.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 22.2 22.1 20.2 0.4 55.3 55.8 20.6 21.6 23.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 8.3 9.6 16.2 -0.2 47.5 48.3 8.5 9.9 10.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 20.5 22.0 18.9 -0.1 48.6 49.6 20.7 22.0 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 20.3 21.9 17.2 -0.2 47.2 48.4 20.7 22.0 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 22.3 21.8 18.2 -0.2 47.5 48.6 20.8 21.9 22.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 19.5 21.0 17.2 -0.1 49.6 49.4 20.0 21.0 21.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 20.2 21.5 17.4 -0.2 50.7 49.4 20.9 21.5 22.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 22.9 21.7 18.5 -0.3 44.2 47.5 20.4 22.5 23.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 22.2 22.3 19.2 0.3 56.0 54.6 20.9 21.8 22.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 22.6 22.0 17.6 -0.2 48.6 49.0 21.3 22.2 23.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 22.0 21.7 19.9 0.3 55.0 54.7 20.1 21.5 22.8 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 19.7 21.1 16.5 -0.3 47.2 47.8 20.1 21.2 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 22.4 22.0 20.1 0.2 51.6 53.2 20.7 21.9 23.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 14.6 15.9 14.3 -0.2 47.8 49.4 14.3 16.0 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 22.4 21.8 19.7 -0.1 49.0 50.0 21.1 22.0 22.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 22.6 22.2 19.6 0.0 51.8 52.2 20.7 22.1 23.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 22.5 22.0 20.0 0.1 51.1 52.3 20.9 21.9 23.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 20.4 21.5 18.4 -0.3 46.2 47.8 20.9 21.6 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 22.4 22.0 18.8 0.2 54.5 53.4 20.8 21.9 22.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 21.1 21.5 16.8 0.5 58.9 55.3 20.0 20.7 21.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 22.3 22.6 19.7 0.4 57.8 55.7 21.0 22.0 22.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 22.5 22.5 17.9 0.0 51.3 50.9 21.0 22.2 22.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 14.5 15.8 15.7 -0.2 47.1 48.0 14.7 16.0 17.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 22.6 22.2 20.2 0.3 52.9 54.3 21.0 22.1 23.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------