***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.04.2017.-30.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 18.9 20.8 18.4 -0.5 44.0 45.5 18.9 21.0 21.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 17.6 18.9 17.7 -1.3 30.8 36.7 19.1 20.5 21.8 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 18.1 19.3 18.4 -0.7 40.6 43.3 19.0 20.5 21.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.3 15.5 0.0 50.5 50.5 11.7 13.3 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 18.5 20.1 16.9 -0.3 45.2 48.0 19.4 20.3 21.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 19.5 19.5 15.5 0.7 62.1 58.1 17.8 19.0 19.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 17.4 18.2 17.6 -1.2 31.8 37.2 18.3 20.2 21.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 8.7 7.8 14.7 -0.4 45.6 46.2 7.3 8.2 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 18.2 19.4 17.8 -0.3 45.0 47.8 18.8 19.8 21.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 18.2 19.9 16.0 -0.3 45.5 47.1 19.1 19.9 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 20.9 20.4 17.4 -0.1 50.0 49.8 19.4 20.4 21.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 19.9 19.4 15.8 -0.2 49.0 48.6 18.4 19.4 20.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 21.0 20.7 17.1 0.1 52.6 52.3 19.2 20.6 21.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 17.7 18.5 16.7 -1.5 29.5 35.0 19.1 20.6 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 18.6 20.4 18.2 0.2 55.8 53.8 18.8 20.0 20.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 21.1 21.1 16.9 0.1 54.2 52.6 19.8 20.6 21.7 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 16.5 17.2 17.0 -1.6 25.5 33.2 18.0 20.0 21.3 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 17.7 19.1 14.7 -0.9 39.4 41.8 18.5 19.6 20.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 17.4 18.8 17.8 -1.2 31.9 37.4 19.0 20.2 21.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 12.6 13.6 12.3 -1.1 36.7 38.6 13.5 14.3 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 18.2 19.9 18.4 -0.5 41.8 45.5 19.1 20.1 21.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 77 23 0 100 16.7 16.7 16.8 -1.9 21.0 30.1 19.3 20.5 22.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 17.6 19.4 17.9 -1.1 34.7 39.0 19.1 20.7 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 17.9 18.7 17.0 -0.9 37.3 40.7 18.7 20.1 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 18.1 19.7 17.3 -0.5 42.7 45.5 19.0 20.5 21.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 20.1 19.9 15.6 0.6 61.3 58.1 18.4 19.5 20.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 18.1 19.8 17.7 -0.6 41.2 43.7 18.3 20.2 21.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 20.5 20.5 16.8 0.2 56.2 53.8 18.9 19.8 21.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 12.8 13.8 13.9 -1.1 37.8 39.4 13.6 14.7 15.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 17.7 18.9 17.9 -1.0 34.9 39.3 18.8 20.3 21.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------