***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.04.2017.-21.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.2 10.3 -0.2 43.5 45.0 9.5 10.4 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 9.4 9.8 9.9 -0.4 39.9 41.5 9.5 10.3 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 11.1 11.2 10.2 -0.4 37.6 41.3 11.0 11.7 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 5.7 6.1 7.6 -0.3 39.1 41.9 6.0 6.8 7.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 7.9 8.2 7.9 -0.4 36.6 41.4 8.1 8.5 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 6.7 7.1 5.7 -0.2 43.3 44.6 6.9 7.4 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 9.6 9.7 10.0 -0.3 42.6 43.3 9.4 10.2 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 1.5 1.9 5.4 -0.5 33.8 39.1 1.8 2.4 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 8.7 8.8 7.9 -0.5 32.4 37.8 8.8 9.3 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 8.6 8.9 6.3 -0.6 31.8 37.6 8.9 9.1 9.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 8.4 8.4 7.2 -0.4 34.6 40.0 8.4 9.0 9.3 29 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 6.8 7.2 6.3 -0.4 37.9 42.1 6.9 7.4 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 7.9 8.2 6.1 -0.4 33.8 39.7 8.1 8.5 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 9.3 9.3 7.6 -0.7 28.8 34.3 9.4 9.8 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 9.4 10.0 8.9 -0.2 44.5 44.7 9.7 10.2 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 8.9 9.5 6.8 -0.4 36.3 41.4 9.2 9.7 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 9.6 10.1 9.8 -0.4 39.6 41.2 10.0 10.3 11.0 29 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 6.9 6.7 5.6 -0.6 31.2 37.2 6.8 7.6 7.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 9.5 9.6 9.8 -0.5 36.7 39.9 9.6 10.0 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 3.5 3.4 3.7 -0.6 30.1 36.6 3.6 4.3 4.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 8.7 8.9 9.4 -0.4 35.6 40.4 8.9 9.2 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 8.9 9.1 9.5 -0.6 34.4 37.9 9.0 9.7 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 9.2 9.1 9.5 -0.6 33.0 37.6 9.1 9.7 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 8.7 9.0 7.6 -0.6 30.7 35.7 9.0 9.3 9.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 9.9 9.5 9.2 -0.2 42.5 45.5 9.4 9.6 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 7.8 8.4 6.0 0.0 49.4 49.2 7.7 8.4 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.3 9.7 9.9 -0.1 45.5 47.2 9.5 9.8 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 7.6 7.8 7.9 -0.3 39.6 41.9 7.7 8.3 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 5.9 5.8 4.8 -0.6 28.0 34.7 6.0 6.7 7.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 9.5 9.9 10.1 -0.4 39.3 41.8 9.6 10.2 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------