***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.05.2017.-21.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 10.4 12.7 12.4 0.3 57.7 54.1 11.0 12.0 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 10.6 12.5 12.2 0.2 55.1 52.8 10.8 12.3 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 12.1 13.7 12.4 0.2 56.6 52.2 13.0 13.5 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 7.2 9.1 9.7 0.1 52.4 51.6 7.2 9.0 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 9.2 10.4 9.7 0.1 55.0 51.7 9.2 9.9 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 8.3 9.7 7.8 0.2 55.6 51.9 9.1 9.6 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 10.5 12.6 12.3 0.3 56.5 53.6 10.6 12.0 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 2.7 4.6 7.5 0.0 51.4 49.9 3.5 4.5 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 10.0 11.6 10.0 0.1 56.2 51.4 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 9.9 11.4 8.4 0.0 52.0 50.1 10.6 11.3 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 10.0 11.2 9.0 0.1 53.3 51.4 10.5 11.1 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 8.3 9.4 8.2 0.1 54.5 51.7 8.3 9.2 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 9.5 11.0 8.0 0.2 54.5 52.8 10.0 10.9 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 10.7 11.8 9.8 -0.1 47.7 49.3 10.6 12.0 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 10.7 12.2 10.8 0.2 54.5 51.9 11.2 11.8 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 10.1 11.6 8.6 0.2 53.3 52.5 10.5 11.5 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 10.8 12.6 12.0 0.2 54.7 52.1 11.3 12.3 13.7 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 8.5 9.5 7.6 -0.1 50.4 49.4 8.8 9.5 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 10.6 12.5 12.1 0.2 54.4 52.2 10.9 12.2 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.0 5.5 -0.1 49.6 48.9 4.7 6.0 6.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 10.0 11.3 11.4 0.1 56.1 51.7 10.5 11.1 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 10.1 11.6 11.6 0.0 50.9 49.7 10.2 11.4 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 10.4 11.8 11.8 0.1 54.1 51.5 10.7 11.5 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 10.3 11.5 9.6 0.0 51.5 50.0 10.0 11.4 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 10.6 12.3 10.9 0.2 55.8 52.9 10.7 11.7 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.6 11.2 7.8 0.4 61.3 56.3 9.8 10.2 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 10.6 12.6 11.8 0.3 57.0 54.3 10.8 11.9 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 9.0 10.1 9.9 0.1 52.3 50.9 9.2 10.1 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 6.9 8.5 6.9 -0.1 48.6 48.5 7.6 8.6 8.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 10.7 12.6 12.3 0.3 55.6 53.0 10.9 12.3 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------