***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.05.2017.-14.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9.2 10.7 11.4 0.2 56.5 54.5 9.3 10.2 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 9.5 10.9 11.1 0.2 54.0 54.3 9.5 10.8 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 11.1 12.6 11.3 0.1 51.8 53.3 10.5 12.6 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 6.3 7.6 8.7 0.1 53.0 53.9 6.0 7.3 8.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 7.8 8.2 8.7 0.0 48.4 53.2 7.9 8.3 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.8 7.7 6.8 0.1 53.6 54.2 6.9 7.4 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 9.5 11.1 11.2 0.2 54.5 55.2 9.5 11.0 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 1.6 2.9 6.4 -0.1 48.5 52.1 2.0 2.9 3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 8.6 9.4 9.0 0.0 47.8 52.9 8.8 9.5 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 8.3 9.3 7.4 0.0 47.9 52.2 9.0 9.4 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.0 8.0 0.0 49.7 53.0 8.4 9.1 9.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 6.8 7.4 7.1 -0.1 48.2 52.4 6.7 7.5 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.7 6.9 0.0 50.1 52.5 8.1 8.7 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 9.3 9.9 8.8 -0.1 49.2 51.5 9.5 9.9 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 9.4 10.8 9.9 0.2 56.3 54.8 9.5 10.2 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.4 9.8 7.6 0.0 49.9 53.2 9.3 9.8 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 9.8 11.0 11.0 0.2 54.2 54.5 9.8 11.0 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 7.1 7.6 6.6 -0.1 45.9 51.8 6.8 8.1 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 9.6 10.9 11.0 0.1 52.9 53.7 9.4 10.9 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 3.5 3.9 4.5 -0.1 44.9 51.5 3.4 4.0 5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 8.5 9.4 10.4 0.0 49.1 52.6 8.6 9.5 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 9.2 10.1 10.6 0.0 50.1 52.4 9.5 10.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 9.3 10.6 10.8 0.1 53.1 53.0 9.4 10.6 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 8.7 9.6 8.6 -0.1 48.5 51.8 8.7 9.6 11.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 8.7 9.9 10.0 0.2 55.7 54.5 9.0 9.7 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.0 9.3 6.9 0.3 58.9 57.8 7.8 8.6 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 9.3 11.2 10.8 0.3 57.4 55.6 9.1 10.6 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 7.7 8.5 8.9 0.1 53.2 53.7 8.1 8.4 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 5.9 7.1 6.0 -0.1 45.6 52.1 6.1 7.1 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 9.7 11.2 11.2 0.2 53.8 54.0 9.4 11.1 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------