***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.05.2017.-07.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.9 9.9 -0.1 49.7 49.0 9.1 9.9 10.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 10.0 9.4 9.6 -0.3 46.3 47.2 8.3 9.5 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.1 9.8 -0.3 47.5 46.6 10.4 11.3 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 6.3 5.8 7.3 -0.2 47.3 48.5 5.5 5.8 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 8.4 7.9 7.7 -0.2 46.6 46.9 7.1 7.9 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.2 6.6 5.3 -0.1 48.1 50.0 5.5 6.8 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.9 9.6 -0.3 48.0 47.6 8.7 9.9 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 2.4 1.5 5.0 -0.4 42.0 44.0 1.1 2.0 2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 9.1 8.7 7.8 -0.2 48.2 47.3 7.8 8.7 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.2 8.3 6.0 -0.3 44.0 44.8 7.9 8.8 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.1 7.0 -0.3 46.2 46.0 7.7 8.3 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.5 6.7 5.9 -0.3 42.9 44.8 6.3 7.0 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.3 5.7 -0.5 39.4 43.5 7.2 7.6 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 8.7 9.2 7.2 -0.6 39.0 40.7 8.7 9.6 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 10.1 9.8 8.6 0.0 52.3 51.6 8.8 9.7 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.5 8.8 6.5 -0.3 45.4 45.9 8.2 8.9 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.2 9.8 9.3 -0.3 46.5 46.4 9.5 9.8 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.5 5.3 -0.4 42.5 43.2 5.9 6.6 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 10.1 9.7 9.5 -0.3 45.7 46.8 9.0 9.7 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 4.0 3.0 3.3 -0.6 38.6 41.3 2.8 3.4 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 8.8 8.2 9.1 -0.2 49.2 48.2 7.8 8.3 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.6 9.3 9.1 -0.5 42.4 44.0 8.8 9.4 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.3 9.2 -0.3 46.0 45.8 8.8 9.4 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 8.4 9.0 7.3 -0.4 43.8 43.3 8.4 9.2 9.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.6 9.1 9.0 0.0 50.7 50.3 8.4 9.1 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 8.2 7.6 5.4 -0.2 44.0 47.3 6.9 7.9 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.4 9.6 9.4 -0.1 48.8 49.3 8.6 9.7 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.1 7.7 7.6 -0.2 47.5 48.5 7.3 7.8 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 6.8 5.7 4.5 -0.5 40.2 41.4 5.5 6.3 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.4 9.5 9.7 -0.3 47.1 47.5 9.0 9.9 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------