***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2018.-20.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 32.1 40.4 54.4 85.7 42.3 40.8 33.5 44.3 58.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 23.8 33.1 51.8 90.3 45.4 45.0 22.3 35.7 50.1 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 34.6 41.7 53.2 86.4 43.3 42.3 29.8 54.0 61.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 43.4 49.2 60.0 83.3 37.9 39.4 44.4 59.3 75.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 30.8 38.9 57.2 83.9 40.5 40.1 34.4 42.4 58.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 40.2 43.8 70.0 87.7 41.2 41.2 40.6 58.0 66.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 24.7 37.7 54.4 94.1 49.6 46.9 22.7 38.0 50.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 65.8 81.2 66.2 87.3 39.4 41.2 79.0 86.7 99.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 34.9 37.2 58.5 84.1 40.9 40.2 32.0 50.8 55.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 40.6 43.1 67.6 85.7 39.3 40.6 40.3 53.6 61.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 30.8 37.2 57.2 84.4 38.2 40.3 34.7 41.5 60.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 36.9 44.2 57.3 84.9 37.6 39.5 41.5 47.6 55.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 30.0 34.9 62.0 83.1 37.2 38.5 33.7 43.6 52.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 40.0 41.6 67.2 84.1 38.5 39.9 38.4 53.7 67.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 23.9 35.4 54.6 82.6 41.9 38.7 32.1 38.3 51.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 32.1 40.3 59.0 83.8 37.7 39.5 35.8 49.1 61.3 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 27.0 38.3 53.7 96.8 51.4 48.5 24.1 37.9 62.2 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 43.4 54.3 73.7 87.2 39.4 41.5 47.4 69.3 75.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 33.9 41.6 50.9 87.5 43.3 43.4 37.5 52.5 66.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 36.7 53.6 77.3 90.9 42.4 43.3 47.0 58.2 68.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 29.3 40.8 55.9 85.0 42.2 40.9 33.0 44.0 49.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 25.5 29.3 52.9 92.6 47.4 46.6 27.0 32.0 52.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 27.0 34.1 51.3 84.4 40.6 41.4 23.9 39.0 64.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 38.2 50.4 64.5 86.1 40.0 41.6 43.4 60.6 73.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 32.0 42.1 61.1 84.4 40.9 39.2 35.1 48.2 60.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 31.6 40.5 56.2 81.3 35.1 37.2 38.4 43.2 50.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 38.1 43.4 59.7 87.2 43.0 41.0 32.9 53.6 60.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 29.6 33.1 58.0 82.4 38.0 38.9 31.5 42.9 54.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 59.2 71.8 74.6 87.8 40.0 41.8 66.3 78.0 89.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 26.1 28.6 51.3 88.0 44.5 43.7 24.5 37.5 54.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------