***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2018.-20.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 14.0 11.1 14.8 90.2 54.0 45.8 7.2 9.9 19.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 6.9 10.3 12.6 85.5 51.8 45.0 7.0 10.1 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 14.7 11.4 13.7 86.8 53.1 46.3 7.0 11.0 21.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 6.1 13.3 16.4 90.2 54.9 45.9 4.7 11.8 19.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 5.1 11.9 15.0 86.6 52.0 45.7 4.4 9.8 17.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 5.8 9.6 20.0 92.4 54.6 46.6 6.1 9.3 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 5.4 11.8 13.7 92.0 56.2 46.4 3.8 10.3 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 21.5 20.8 17.9 90.6 52.2 47.9 15.2 20.2 23.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 5.2 9.4 15.4 87.3 51.5 45.8 4.2 9.1 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 16.0 14.0 18.3 88.2 51.2 46.6 9.5 13.1 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.8 5.7 15.0 89.1 51.9 47.1 3.0 5.4 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.1 8.9 15.5 89.5 52.5 47.2 5.4 8.5 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.5 8.3 17.5 89.1 55.1 47.5 3.1 7.4 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 17.3 14.6 17.3 82.2 50.6 45.5 7.4 14.0 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.6 7.4 16.0 96.9 59.8 47.6 1.7 5.1 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.5 11.4 16.3 88.4 52.7 46.5 6.4 10.1 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.8 9.5 12.5 89.9 56.0 46.2 5.2 7.9 17.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.8 14.0 20.4 89.7 53.5 47.0 7.9 13.5 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 6.8 11.7 12.3 82.1 51.6 44.5 9.7 11.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.5 12.3 21.8 96.8 56.1 50.3 6.8 11.1 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 14.0 12.9 14.9 89.5 55.4 46.4 4.2 12.3 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 14.6 13.6 12.1 85.1 54.9 45.7 5.7 12.3 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 15.1 15.0 12.2 79.4 52.2 44.4 8.8 13.5 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 16.2 14.1 17.0 85.8 52.0 45.9 11.5 13.6 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.7 8.2 17.1 91.8 54.3 45.4 3.4 6.2 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.8 7.4 15.8 88.0 55.7 47.1 3.3 6.4 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 17.8 15.6 16.4 92.3 55.1 45.3 5.2 14.4 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.0 9.0 16.1 88.6 55.4 45.6 4.5 7.3 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.0 19.5 20.7 90.9 53.5 48.2 12.1 19.3 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 7.1 12.2 12.9 86.1 51.8 45.2 8.2 12.2 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------