***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2018.-13.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 13.1 13.6 14.1 82.2 57.7 46.6 2.0 11.0 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.5 7.2 14.2 92.2 60.7 49.5 2.7 4.6 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.1 8.8 14.2 86.3 57.9 48.1 2.0 7.8 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 7.4 20.2 18.6 101.5 62.8 50.7 8.4 14.0 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 5.6 14.6 17.7 100.2 62.4 51.1 3.0 11.5 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 6.3 16.8 20.0 97.2 60.0 48.7 7.2 12.7 20.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.2 8.3 14.8 95.3 61.7 50.4 3.6 5.6 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 9.2 24.7 19.8 103.4 61.2 51.3 10.4 16.8 26.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.9 11.3 17.3 92.3 60.1 49.2 3.8 8.4 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 6.6 13.5 19.8 96.5 59.9 50.0 5.0 11.6 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 5.3 14.0 16.9 102.0 63.5 51.1 6.6 9.6 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.7 16.1 17.5 103.2 62.6 51.2 4.9 9.4 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.8 13.1 18.3 95.6 61.0 49.8 2.9 9.3 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 4.6 9.0 18.4 83.2 53.6 46.4 4.1 8.1 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.3 13.5 16.0 95.3 61.5 48.9 4.9 8.3 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 5.1 15.8 17.6 100.9 64.7 50.4 6.7 9.8 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 9.0 10.6 15.1 102.9 64.3 52.5 3.4 5.8 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.1 15.2 21.3 94.1 59.3 49.6 3.8 11.3 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 13.4 14.2 14.0 89.7 59.4 49.1 3.9 11.4 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 6.7 13.7 23.2 103.9 62.2 51.7 5.7 10.3 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 5.9 15.0 15.8 90.2 60.1 50.0 2.9 11.9 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.8 15.2 99.4 61.0 51.3 4.6 6.8 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.9 8.5 13.9 86.3 57.4 48.7 4.2 7.9 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.5 16.6 17.9 88.6 57.7 48.7 7.3 12.9 19.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 6.0 15.4 17.2 91.1 61.5 49.4 4.4 10.8 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.9 9.0 17.3 98.8 58.8 51.0 4.6 6.0 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 14.7 14.4 15.9 87.8 59.1 48.3 5.2 13.5 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 5.2 13.1 17.7 98.6 62.1 49.0 6.1 8.9 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 9.5 19.5 21.7 96.6 59.5 49.6 9.1 16.6 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 9.6 8.7 13.7 86.2 58.1 48.0 1.8 7.4 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------