***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2018.-06.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 4.4 10.0 14.8 96.1 58.4 46.9 2.4 8.8 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 8.7 7.4 13.9 101.5 62.4 48.4 2.3 5.7 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.3 10.6 15.6 101.8 60.1 48.0 3.1 8.2 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 5.4 14.6 17.4 98.4 59.7 44.4 7.4 11.1 16.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 2.9 6.7 16.9 97.3 58.0 44.6 4.0 5.4 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 7.0 13.7 21.2 110.1 64.6 49.8 7.4 11.1 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.8 8.4 14.3 99.4 61.3 48.1 3.5 4.6 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 12.1 27.3 18.7 101.1 59.8 47.6 13.8 18.7 29.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.4 9.0 16.9 96.1 56.8 44.0 4.2 6.6 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 5.5 12.1 19.1 99.1 58.8 46.3 3.9 10.8 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 4.0 8.9 17.9 98.2 59.0 46.2 4.1 7.3 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 5.9 13.9 16.9 96.5 58.2 45.9 4.2 12.1 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 5.6 12.3 18.4 98.3 59.2 46.0 7.5 10.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 5.1 14.7 19.1 93.7 56.8 44.7 6.0 9.8 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.8 9.2 16.2 94.6 60.3 43.5 3.4 6.7 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 4.7 10.0 17.8 97.8 57.8 45.8 5.0 8.2 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.3 8.8 13.6 97.5 59.0 47.9 1.8 6.7 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 5.1 14.6 20.4 99.6 59.3 46.8 3.1 12.0 16.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 10.6 9.0 14.1 100.0 61.8 48.2 3.4 7.3 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.5 11.0 20.4 96.9 57.8 46.3 5.0 10.6 16.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.2 6.7 16.1 96.7 57.1 44.8 3.6 5.7 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.0 6.1 13.4 92.3 58.0 46.1 4.5 5.9 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 12.1 11.4 15.3 98.5 59.5 47.4 6.0 10.5 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 3.3 9.7 19.0 98.7 59.3 46.0 4.2 7.0 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.8 10.6 17.0 90.5 54.4 44.7 1.8 9.6 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 5.2 10.2 16.6 92.4 53.1 43.3 6.5 9.6 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 4.5 9.7 16.5 95.5 58.6 46.9 4.5 8.9 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 3.1 9.7 17.1 99.1 60.3 44.3 4.2 7.7 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 7.8 21.0 20.3 95.2 57.5 45.9 9.4 18.0 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.2 8.1 14.4 103.3 62.3 48.5 2.1 5.8 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------