***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2018.-29.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 4.5 7.0 10.7 73.7 52.5 38.7 5.3 6.9 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.0 6.7 11.0 82.2 55.5 42.1 2.0 4.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 4.6 10.5 9.6 69.4 50.2 36.4 6.1 10.5 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 4.9 4.1 7.5 42.6 32.0 24.3 4.4 12.0 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 2.4 6.0 7.6 48.1 35.5 25.2 5.8 8.6 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 2.7 2.7 8.8 48.0 30.6 27.1 2.9 7.3 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.0 6.7 11.7 89.4 58.6 43.1 3.0 5.8 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 8.6 12.3 9.9 53.3 35.2 29.3 11.7 16.5 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 2.8 7.2 8.9 57.2 40.6 29.3 5.4 9.1 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 3.6 7.8 10.5 57.5 38.5 30.2 6.0 9.0 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 3.0 3.5 7.5 45.9 34.3 26.3 3.4 6.6 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 2.0 4.2 7.4 47.1 33.3 26.7 4.1 7.8 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 2.7 1.9 7.8 45.6 31.6 25.6 2.3 9.3 16.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 5.3 9.3 12.3 76.0 50.3 37.0 6.9 9.3 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 1.9 2.0 6.4 40.8 34.5 26.2 1.8 5.3 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 77 23 0 100 2.9 3.7 7.2 44.3 31.7 25.4 3.8 7.1 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 9.3 8.2 12.5 96.6 60.9 47.2 3.0 6.2 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 5.1 8.0 11.5 62.1 41.9 32.4 5.3 11.5 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 2.4 5.9 10.5 78.0 54.0 40.8 3.9 5.4 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 5.3 7.4 12.0 63.0 38.7 33.7 6.7 8.9 11.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 3.3 8.1 9.1 61.0 43.7 31.4 4.7 9.6 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.6 7.4 12.1 93.2 58.3 46.3 3.3 5.4 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 2.7 7.1 9.8 72.0 51.0 38.0 4.5 7.1 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 3.9 7.7 10.6 67.6 47.2 33.9 5.7 8.3 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 3.2 5.2 9.9 61.3 42.3 30.9 3.3 7.2 19.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 76 24 0 100 2.1 2.6 6.5 41.4 29.6 23.0 3.1 5.1 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 3.9 7.8 10.9 71.2 48.8 36.9 3.0 8.2 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 1.7 1.8 7.1 41.5 33.6 26.4 1.8 5.0 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 6.5 9.3 11.9 65.0 43.0 34.2 7.3 11.2 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 3.2 8.6 10.3 76.6 53.0 39.7 2.7 6.5 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------