***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2018.-20.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 23.0 23.7 21.6 1.4 77.0 72.1 21.2 21.9 23.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 23.5 24.0 21.3 1.1 71.6 68.0 20.8 22.0 23.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 23.4 24.2 21.9 1.5 77.7 72.2 21.1 22.1 23.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 15.6 16.8 19.3 1.8 83.0 75.4 13.8 14.3 15.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 23.2 23.9 20.2 1.7 81.5 74.1 21.2 22.2 23.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 21.3 22.0 18.0 1.8 82.6 74.6 19.9 20.4 21.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 23.3 23.7 21.1 1.1 71.9 67.2 20.5 21.6 22.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 11.0 11.6 18.3 1.7 79.9 73.5 8.8 10.2 10.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 22.6 23.2 20.8 1.8 82.6 75.1 20.7 21.4 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 22.4 23.0 19.3 1.8 80.9 74.0 20.7 21.3 22.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 22.7 23.4 20.2 1.8 82.6 74.8 21.1 21.4 22.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 21.8 22.4 19.4 1.9 82.1 75.2 20.0 20.7 21.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 22.6 23.3 19.3 1.8 81.4 74.2 20.9 21.4 22.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 23.1 23.7 20.3 1.3 73.4 69.0 21.0 21.8 23.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 23.4 24.8 20.9 1.9 86.2 78.0 21.0 21.9 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 23.3 24.0 19.7 1.8 83.1 74.8 21.4 22.3 23.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 22.8 23.2 20.9 1.0 70.0 65.6 20.1 21.4 22.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 22.0 22.5 18.7 1.7 78.3 72.5 20.1 20.9 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 23.0 23.8 21.6 1.4 74.9 70.7 20.4 21.2 23.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 17.3 17.8 16.2 1.6 78.2 71.9 15.3 16.4 17.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 23.1 23.8 21.5 1.6 79.8 73.4 20.9 21.8 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 23.3 23.8 20.9 1.0 69.8 66.3 20.7 21.9 23.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 23.5 24.1 21.9 1.7 80.2 74.4 21.2 22.2 23.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 22.6 23.2 20.4 1.5 76.9 71.5 20.6 21.5 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 23.2 23.8 20.3 1.5 79.6 73.4 20.8 22.0 22.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 22.0 22.9 18.7 2.1 85.1 78.5 20.1 21.1 22.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 23.0 23.7 20.9 1.4 77.4 72.0 20.8 21.7 22.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 23.1 24.0 19.9 1.8 83.9 76.1 20.9 22.0 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 17.3 17.9 17.8 1.6 77.8 71.5 15.2 16.1 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 23.4 24.2 21.4 1.2 74.6 69.6 20.7 21.8 22.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------