***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2018.-20.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 21.8 25.3 22.1 0.6 56.4 55.8 22.1 24.4 25.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 25.4 25.5 21.9 0.4 56.7 55.2 22.8 24.9 26.5 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 22.4 25.2 22.4 0.7 57.5 56.4 22.8 24.9 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 14.7 17.5 19.8 0.6 57.3 54.9 15.5 16.9 18.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 25.3 25.2 20.4 0.6 57.2 55.6 22.7 24.6 26.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 23.9 23.8 18.1 0.5 57.6 54.0 21.7 23.5 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 24.7 24.7 21.8 0.3 53.7 54.5 22.8 24.2 25.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.3 13.3 18.7 0.6 57.3 55.2 11.6 13.0 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 24.6 24.8 20.8 0.7 59.2 56.6 22.6 24.0 25.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 24.5 24.3 19.5 0.7 58.6 56.2 22.4 24.0 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 24.9 24.7 20.1 0.6 57.9 55.4 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 23.5 23.8 19.7 0.6 58.3 55.5 22.2 23.0 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 24.9 24.7 19.0 0.6 58.2 55.1 23.3 24.5 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 22.0 25.3 20.5 0.6 54.8 55.3 22.3 24.8 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 25.2 25.1 20.7 0.6 57.9 55.7 23.7 24.6 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 25.3 25.3 19.7 0.6 58.0 55.2 23.3 24.7 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 24.5 24.7 21.6 0.3 55.0 53.8 22.5 23.8 25.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 24.0 24.2 19.1 0.7 57.8 56.1 21.5 23.5 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 24.7 25.2 22.2 0.6 58.6 56.6 22.3 24.1 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 19.1 19.1 16.5 0.6 57.9 55.2 17.7 18.6 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 24.9 24.9 21.7 0.6 56.2 55.7 22.3 24.4 25.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 25.3 25.6 21.6 0.4 55.7 54.5 22.7 24.9 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 26.1 25.4 22.4 0.8 60.0 58.1 22.6 24.8 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 24.6 24.5 20.6 0.7 56.9 56.0 21.8 24.2 25.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 22.2 24.8 20.5 0.6 55.0 55.3 22.4 24.5 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 24.0 24.4 19.0 0.9 61.9 57.6 22.4 23.6 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 22.3 24.8 21.3 0.5 55.3 55.5 22.6 24.5 25.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 22.2 24.7 20.1 0.6 57.5 54.9 22.3 24.4 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 19.0 19.1 18.1 0.7 57.2 55.6 17.0 18.4 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 25.0 24.9 22.0 0.5 56.3 55.8 22.4 24.4 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------