***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2018.-13.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 23.5 23.8 21.2 0.6 59.8 55.9 20.1 22.9 24.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 23.2 22.7 20.8 0.3 55.4 53.4 21.4 22.6 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 23.3 24.0 21.4 0.6 60.4 55.7 20.8 22.8 24.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 15.6 16.8 19.1 0.7 63.3 56.7 13.6 14.8 17.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 23.4 24.3 19.7 0.7 63.2 56.5 20.5 22.9 24.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 19.7 21.7 17.5 0.7 61.9 56.2 19.5 21.1 22.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 22.5 22.7 20.8 0.2 55.7 52.8 20.8 21.8 23.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 11.1 11.6 17.9 0.6 61.7 56.1 8.5 10.6 12.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 20.6 23.4 20.0 0.8 63.6 56.9 19.9 22.3 23.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 22.4 23.2 18.7 0.7 62.7 56.4 19.9 21.9 23.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 22.8 23.5 19.4 0.7 63.4 57.0 20.1 22.2 23.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 22.9 22.3 18.9 0.8 63.4 57.7 19.5 21.3 22.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 24.1 23.0 18.3 0.8 62.8 57.8 20.4 22.3 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 21.0 23.3 19.4 0.3 54.2 52.8 21.8 22.6 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 23.0 24.2 20.0 0.8 64.9 57.6 21.0 22.1 24.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 21.5 23.7 19.0 0.8 62.6 57.4 20.9 23.1 24.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 22.0 21.6 20.5 0.1 53.7 51.6 20.7 21.2 23.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 22.2 22.4 18.2 0.6 60.1 55.6 19.5 21.8 22.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 22.8 22.8 21.1 0.4 57.7 54.6 21.0 22.3 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 16.9 17.3 15.5 0.5 58.2 54.8 15.5 16.3 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 23.2 23.5 20.9 0.7 63.1 56.6 20.1 22.6 23.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 22.6 22.2 20.4 0.1 53.1 51.8 21.6 21.8 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 23.2 23.4 21.2 0.6 60.7 55.7 21.2 22.7 23.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 20.6 22.7 19.6 0.5 58.0 54.7 20.5 22.2 23.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 22.5 24.4 19.7 0.7 61.6 56.9 20.5 21.8 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 23.2 23.6 18.4 1.1 67.6 59.8 20.0 21.4 23.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 22.8 23.4 20.5 0.6 60.8 56.3 20.3 22.2 23.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 22.9 23.7 19.4 0.7 63.3 56.6 20.9 22.1 24.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.1 17.2 17.2 0.5 57.9 54.7 14.8 16.7 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 22.9 22.9 21.0 0.4 56.7 54.1 20.7 22.3 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------