***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2018.-06.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 22.8 23.1 21.2 1.3 64.3 61.6 21.4 22.6 23.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 22.8 23.1 21.0 1.2 63.5 60.5 21.1 22.5 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 22.7 23.1 21.4 1.4 64.0 61.8 21.0 22.4 23.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 15.3 16.0 18.4 1.4 65.7 61.5 12.9 14.9 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 22.7 23.0 19.7 1.5 64.8 62.0 20.5 22.5 23.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 20.7 21.5 17.4 1.4 66.3 61.5 18.9 20.2 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 22.5 22.6 20.9 1.2 64.2 60.7 20.9 22.1 22.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 9.8 10.2 17.7 1.4 63.5 61.0 8.3 9.4 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 22.3 22.6 20.5 1.6 65.4 62.6 20.0 22.1 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 22.2 22.4 18.8 1.5 64.7 61.9 20.3 22.0 22.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 22.2 22.3 19.9 1.6 67.7 62.4 20.5 22.0 22.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 21.0 22.0 18.7 1.6 67.3 62.3 19.3 20.6 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 21.9 22.8 18.9 1.5 66.2 62.1 20.3 21.5 22.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 22.5 22.8 19.9 1.1 62.8 59.3 20.7 22.2 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 22.1 23.1 20.3 1.6 69.0 63.0 20.6 21.7 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 22.5 23.0 19.2 1.6 67.0 62.1 21.1 22.2 22.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 21.9 22.6 20.6 1.1 63.6 60.3 20.4 21.5 22.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 21.6 21.6 18.1 1.4 61.7 60.6 19.5 21.3 21.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 22.5 23.0 21.2 1.4 64.9 61.8 20.5 22.2 23.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.6 15.5 1.2 60.2 59.1 14.2 16.0 16.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 22.5 22.6 21.2 1.4 63.3 61.6 20.8 22.4 22.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 22.6 23.3 20.6 1.1 63.3 60.3 20.6 22.3 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 23.3 23.0 21.5 1.7 67.9 64.2 20.5 22.5 23.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 22.0 22.3 20.0 1.4 62.9 60.8 20.2 21.8 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 22.5 22.9 19.9 1.4 64.4 61.9 20.5 22.3 22.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 22.0 21.5 18.0 1.8 69.2 64.6 19.1 20.5 21.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 22.4 22.5 20.6 1.3 64.5 61.7 20.9 22.2 22.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 22.2 22.9 19.1 1.4 66.9 61.3 20.5 21.8 22.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.7 17.2 1.3 61.0 59.5 14.0 16.0 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 22.6 22.9 21.1 1.3 64.4 61.1 21.0 22.3 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------