***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2018.-29.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 22.2 24.2 21.9 3.2 87.2 83.2 18.7 20.6 21.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 22.5 24.1 21.4 2.6 83.8 78.6 18.5 20.0 21.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 22.3 24.3 22.1 3.3 86.8 83.2 18.5 20.3 21.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 15.4 18.0 19.7 4.3 91.7 89.4 11.2 12.5 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 4 96 100 23.1 24.6 21.0 4.0 89.7 87.3 19.1 20.1 21.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 21.1 23.8 19.0 4.5 92.2 89.5 17.6 19.0 19.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 22.0 23.3 21.1 2.5 81.9 77.3 18.0 19.8 20.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 10.4 11.7 19.1 4.3 90.1 88.1 7.5 8.0 8.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 3 97 100 22.5 24.7 22.0 4.1 89.9 87.4 18.4 19.8 20.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 21.9 24.4 20.2 4.2 89.4 87.1 18.9 19.7 20.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 22.5 25.0 21.6 4.3 89.9 88.2 19.0 20.3 20.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 21.4 23.7 20.2 4.4 91.3 89.5 18.4 19.2 19.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 6 94 100 22.4 24.7 20.9 4.2 90.2 88.6 19.3 19.9 21.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 22.3 24.4 21.3 3.3 86.3 82.3 18.4 20.2 21.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 22.0 24.7 22.3 4.6 94.7 91.9 18.7 19.7 20.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 23.2 24.9 20.9 4.3 90.5 89.1 19.6 20.3 21.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 21.8 22.8 20.8 2.3 80.9 75.4 17.4 19.6 21.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 7 93 100 21.4 24.3 19.4 4.0 88.2 85.8 18.5 19.2 20.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 22.2 24.0 21.8 3.0 85.9 81.0 17.9 19.8 21.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 17.0 18.3 17.4 4.2 88.6 87.4 13.8 14.3 15.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 22.2 24.6 22.4 3.7 88.7 85.4 18.9 20.2 21.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 22.4 23.8 21.0 2.4 81.7 76.3 18.6 19.8 21.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 11 89 100 23.2 24.8 22.4 3.6 88.8 84.9 18.7 20.3 21.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 12 88 100 22.3 24.3 21.3 3.6 87.0 83.9 18.4 19.9 20.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 22.6 24.1 21.1 3.5 88.6 85.1 18.3 19.9 21.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 3 97 100 21.5 23.4 19.5 4.8 93.3 92.1 18.5 19.3 20.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 22.6 23.9 21.3 3.1 87.2 82.6 18.2 20.1 20.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 22.3 24.7 20.9 4.5 92.6 90.8 18.6 19.7 21.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 16.8 19.1 18.8 4.0 88.0 85.6 13.7 14.6 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 22.4 23.7 21.6 2.8 84.9 80.2 18.0 20.1 20.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------