***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2018.-20.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 10.6 10.9 11.6 1.1 79.0 72.9 9.5 10.2 10.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 10.7 10.8 11.2 1.0 76.1 72.2 9.5 10.0 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 12.5 12.9 11.6 1.2 80.3 75.5 11.0 11.5 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 7.7 8.1 9.1 1.3 85.2 78.9 5.8 6.6 7.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 9.1 9.4 9.5 1.3 83.0 78.4 7.8 8.4 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 7.9 8.3 7.2 1.5 87.2 80.8 6.5 7.1 7.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 10.6 10.8 11.2 1.0 75.3 71.5 9.4 10.0 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 3.0 3.3 6.9 1.2 83.8 78.4 1.6 2.2 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 9.7 10.0 9.5 1.2 83.8 79.1 8.6 9.1 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 9.8 10.1 7.9 1.2 84.0 78.8 8.6 9.0 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 9.3 9.5 8.7 1.3 84.6 79.1 8.2 8.9 9.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 7.7 8.0 7.8 1.3 84.7 78.5 6.8 7.1 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 8.9 9.3 7.6 1.2 84.0 77.4 7.9 8.4 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 10.3 10.8 9.2 1.1 81.4 75.5 9.3 9.7 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 10.4 10.9 10.3 1.3 85.7 79.2 9.4 9.9 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 10.4 10.7 8.3 1.3 84.2 78.5 9.1 9.5 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 10.8 11.1 11.0 1.0 74.9 71.1 9.8 10.2 10.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 7.8 8.1 7.2 1.2 84.2 78.5 6.7 7.3 7.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 10.6 11.0 11.3 1.1 78.6 74.8 9.5 9.7 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 4.4 4.6 5.3 1.2 82.8 77.2 3.4 3.9 4.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 9.7 10.0 10.8 1.2 82.2 76.8 8.7 9.0 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 10.0 10.1 10.9 1.0 76.3 72.1 8.8 9.5 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 10.4 10.7 11.2 1.3 82.5 78.8 9.0 9.4 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 9.8 10.2 9.2 1.2 82.7 77.4 8.9 9.1 9.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 10.3 10.8 10.5 1.2 80.4 74.4 9.1 9.5 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 8.9 9.3 7.3 1.5 88.5 81.0 7.6 8.2 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 10.9 11.6 11.1 1.1 78.6 72.9 9.3 9.7 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 8.4 8.9 9.4 1.3 86.0 79.3 7.4 8.1 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 7.3 7.7 6.5 1.2 81.5 76.6 5.9 6.4 7.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 10.8 11.1 11.5 1.1 76.8 73.1 9.5 10.0 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------