***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2018.-20.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 10.2 11.9 12.1 0.2 53.1 52.5 10.7 11.9 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 10.4 12.3 11.8 0.1 52.4 51.1 10.3 12.0 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 11.9 13.8 12.1 0.2 54.3 52.9 12.4 13.6 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 7.0 9.2 9.5 0.3 56.4 54.1 7.5 8.9 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 8.9 10.8 9.6 0.3 59.5 54.5 9.1 9.5 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 7.9 9.6 7.6 0.4 60.6 55.1 8.5 9.2 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 10.4 11.9 11.8 0.1 51.2 51.3 10.4 11.8 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 2.7 4.6 7.4 0.4 57.9 55.2 3.4 4.4 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 9.8 11.5 9.8 0.3 58.3 53.9 10.5 11.0 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 9.8 11.4 8.2 0.3 56.7 54.0 10.1 11.2 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 9.7 11.2 8.9 0.3 59.3 55.3 9.9 10.9 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 7.8 9.4 8.2 0.4 59.8 55.8 8.0 9.2 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 9.2 10.5 7.7 0.3 58.2 54.4 9.6 10.4 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 10.6 11.6 9.5 0.1 50.4 50.8 10.8 11.6 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.7 10.7 0.3 57.0 54.7 10.8 11.4 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 10.1 11.7 8.5 0.3 60.2 54.9 10.2 11.3 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 10.6 11.9 11.6 0.0 49.5 50.1 10.8 12.0 13.4 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 8.3 9.7 7.4 0.2 53.5 52.5 8.0 9.6 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 10.5 12.5 11.8 0.2 54.5 52.2 10.6 12.0 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 5.8 5.7 5.4 0.3 54.6 53.4 4.3 5.5 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 9.7 11.6 11.2 0.3 55.3 53.6 10.3 11.2 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 10.2 10.7 11.3 0.0 48.7 49.9 9.7 11.2 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 10.3 11.5 11.7 0.3 56.3 53.7 10.4 11.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 10.1 11.4 9.4 0.1 52.5 51.9 9.9 11.3 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 10.3 12.1 10.7 0.3 55.2 53.5 10.2 11.6 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 10.7 10.8 7.5 0.5 61.6 57.0 8.7 10.3 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 10.4 12.1 11.5 0.2 53.8 53.0 10.8 11.9 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 8.9 10.0 9.7 0.2 56.7 53.8 8.8 9.8 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 6.8 8.6 6.8 0.2 53.8 52.5 7.8 8.4 8.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 10.5 12.0 12.0 0.1 52.9 51.7 10.7 11.9 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------