***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2018.-13.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.6 11.2 11.5 0.5 61.0 57.6 9.0 10.1 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 11.1 11.3 11.1 0.4 60.8 56.5 9.6 10.8 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 12.6 13.2 11.5 0.5 62.5 58.2 10.4 12.2 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 6.8 8.6 8.9 0.6 61.7 59.0 5.7 6.1 8.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.9 9.0 0.6 61.8 59.5 7.3 8.5 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 8.9 8.6 7.2 0.8 68.4 62.3 6.6 7.6 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 9.3 11.2 11.1 0.4 60.1 55.8 9.2 10.3 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 3.4 3.3 6.8 0.7 62.5 60.8 1.7 2.7 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.0 10.2 9.2 0.6 62.5 59.5 8.7 9.6 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.1 7.7 0.6 61.8 60.3 8.3 9.5 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 10.1 9.8 8.3 0.6 63.7 60.9 8.0 9.3 9.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 8.4 8.7 7.6 0.7 65.5 61.0 6.8 7.4 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.2 10.1 7.3 0.6 65.3 59.9 7.8 8.8 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 10.2 11.1 9.0 0.4 58.7 56.9 9.2 9.8 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.9 11.4 10.1 0.7 64.9 59.5 9.4 10.4 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 11.1 11.1 7.9 0.7 65.5 60.7 8.9 9.6 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.5 10.9 0.3 57.4 55.1 9.6 10.8 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 8.7 8.9 7.0 0.6 60.9 59.7 6.4 8.5 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.0 11.4 11.2 0.5 62.0 58.0 9.3 10.6 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 4.4 4.9 4.9 0.6 58.5 59.5 3.4 3.9 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.1 10.6 0.5 61.8 58.1 8.3 9.6 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.6 10.7 0.4 57.9 55.7 9.1 10.0 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.7 11.0 11.0 0.6 63.7 59.9 9.6 10.3 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.5 8.9 0.5 61.0 58.2 8.7 9.9 11.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.1 10.1 0.5 60.2 58.0 8.9 9.9 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 9.6 9.8 7.1 0.8 69.2 61.7 7.7 8.4 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.2 11.2 10.9 0.5 61.7 57.9 9.4 10.7 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.7 9.5 9.2 0.6 63.1 59.0 7.9 8.2 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 7.5 7.4 6.4 0.6 59.4 59.3 6.0 7.2 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 10.9 11.3 11.3 0.5 62.0 57.1 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------