***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2012.-20.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 0.0 51.3 91.7 51.0 46.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 41.2 36.8 51.5 94.6 52.5 48.9 22.3 35.7 50.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 37.7 54.5 50.2 90.6 50.7 46.7 29.8 54.0 61.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 45.0 56.3 62.8 87.5 46.9 42.2 44.4 59.3 75.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 32.4 39.9 60.7 85.5 43.4 41.7 34.4 42.4 58.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 41.7 43.8 78.1 84.5 41.2 40.8 40.6 58.0 66.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 26.6 38.5 52.1 94.1 50.9 46.9 22.7 38.0 50.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 68.9 82.5 61.5 81.6 43.7 39.6 79.0 86.7 99.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 35.2 37.2 56.6 83.6 40.8 41.1 32.0 50.8 55.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 42.1 45.9 63.4 83.2 45.0 41.0 40.3 53.6 61.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 32.1 39.9 57.0 85.0 44.6 41.9 34.7 41.5 60.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 37.8 46.3 51.6 81.5 43.4 39.6 41.5 47.6 55.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 47.2 40.5 65.5 83.0 41.4 39.5 33.7 43.6 52.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 63.1 53.3 61.2 88.8 48.5 45.2 38.4 53.7 67.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 26.9 37.1 57.6 89.1 48.7 43.7 32.1 38.3 51.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 53.6 43.2 61.5 82.9 40.8 39.8 35.8 49.1 61.3 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 26.8 38.9 49.8 96.5 53.5 48.5 24.1 37.9 62.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 72.7 64.8 69.4 84.2 45.2 41.3 47.4 69.3 75.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 58.6 54.1 50.7 93.8 52.2 49.5 37.5 52.5 66.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 39.8 55.2 79.3 83.5 44.7 39.2 47.0 58.2 68.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 29.1 41.0 51.0 86.1 42.7 43.2 33.0 44.0 49.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 39.2 43.0 50.1 98.6 58.1 51.6 27.0 32.0 52.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 47.8 44.6 52.2 93.2 54.8 49.5 23.9 39.0 64.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 65.2 58.3 60.1 86.6 47.2 43.5 43.4 60.6 73.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 33.3 49.5 66.6 92.2 50.9 45.4 35.1 48.2 60.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 32.6 41.6 60.7 83.8 39.0 40.6 38.4 43.2 50.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 39.6 54.1 61.6 92.7 51.3 46.0 32.9 53.6 60.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 31.1 41.3 59.4 85.8 45.4 41.3 31.5 42.9 54.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 83.7 75.7 71.8 84.1 44.7 40.9 66.3 78.0 89.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 44.0 42.7 51.7 93.9 53.1 48.5 24.5 37.5 54.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------