***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2012.-20.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 0.0 13.3 95.4 63.6 46.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 6.4 11.0 12.2 92.1 58.2 48.3 7.0 10.1 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 5.5 14.2 12.8 97.8 62.5 48.8 7.0 11.0 21.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 5.8 16.5 16.1 92.2 59.0 46.2 4.7 11.8 19.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 4.6 14.9 15.5 92.5 59.0 46.8 4.4 9.8 17.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.9 9.4 20.1 89.4 52.3 47.5 6.1 9.3 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 5.3 13.3 12.4 90.8 59.3 46.9 3.8 10.3 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 12.2 22.2 16.5 97.2 57.6 48.6 15.2 20.2 23.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 4.4 10.4 14.9 92.7 56.2 47.0 4.2 9.1 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 7.1 16.5 17.0 95.5 57.1 48.3 9.5 13.1 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.0 12.7 14.5 94.2 59.9 48.2 3.0 5.4 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.6 9.3 13.3 94.4 54.5 47.7 5.4 8.5 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.4 7.9 16.0 89.2 53.6 47.4 3.1 7.4 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 6.7 18.7 14.9 91.4 62.3 48.1 7.4 14.0 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.5 6.6 14.0 89.6 57.1 45.7 1.7 5.1 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.5 12.4 15.5 92.2 57.6 48.2 6.4 10.1 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.4 10.8 10.9 87.0 57.6 45.7 5.2 7.9 17.5 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 8.1 14.5 18.5 97.2 56.4 48.9 7.9 13.5 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 6.0 14.0 12.0 93.4 60.9 48.9 9.7 11.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 7.6 15.8 21.1 99.4 59.9 49.1 6.8 11.1 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 5.8 14.0 13.4 94.8 60.3 46.8 4.2 12.3 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 7.4 14.3 10.8 90.8 62.2 48.3 5.7 12.3 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 6.8 17.1 12.2 93.0 62.9 48.5 8.8 13.5 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 7.6 17.5 15.5 96.4 61.1 48.5 11.5 13.6 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 3.5 10.1 17.1 92.6 60.6 46.0 3.4 6.2 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.7 7.2 15.1 91.2 54.3 46.7 3.3 6.4 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 6.8 16.5 15.7 92.7 59.7 45.6 5.2 14.4 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.8 9.2 15.0 91.6 58.4 46.6 4.5 7.3 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 12.1 22.6 19.1 97.4 59.6 48.8 12.1 19.3 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 6.5 14.9 12.6 94.2 60.3 48.5 8.2 12.2 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------