***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2012.-13.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 20.2 121.9 67.0 56.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 9.8 8.0 21.5 121.3 66.6 59.0 2.7 4.6 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.9 12.2 20.0 117.0 63.7 56.5 2.0 7.8 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.0 20.8 23.8 115.1 64.9 55.8 8.4 14.0 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.7 23.1 112.8 62.6 56.7 3.0 11.5 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 15.0 17.8 30.1 114.8 62.5 57.0 7.2 12.7 20.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 10.0 9.6 21.6 119.2 66.5 58.1 3.6 5.6 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 19.7 23.1 22.2 101.9 59.9 54.6 10.4 16.8 26.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 10.8 11.5 21.7 111.3 61.5 56.3 3.8 8.4 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.2 13.9 23.4 106.9 60.7 56.1 5.0 11.6 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.8 14.5 21.6 109.8 64.3 56.7 6.6 9.6 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 12.6 16.2 19.0 105.1 62.8 54.0 4.9 9.4 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 4.8 13.5 24.9 112.7 64.5 55.2 2.9 9.3 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 4.6 10.6 23.6 110.2 58.8 54.4 4.1 8.1 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 11.8 15.0 21.3 116.1 66.2 54.7 4.9 8.3 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 5.1 16.1 23.4 109.4 65.8 54.9 6.7 9.8 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 15.5 15.1 20.8 126.9 70.2 60.9 3.4 5.8 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 13.5 14.8 24.8 104.2 58.2 54.6 3.8 11.3 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 17.0 16.6 21.2 120.2 66.9 58.3 3.9 11.4 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 12.5 12.8 28.4 102.0 58.3 54.3 5.7 10.3 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 13.9 15.2 19.8 116.3 60.7 56.2 2.9 11.9 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 12.4 11.8 21.0 128.8 72.7 61.0 4.6 6.8 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.9 9.6 21.5 117.6 65.6 57.1 4.2 7.9 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 15.7 17.9 22.3 108.2 60.3 54.6 7.3 12.9 19.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 14.3 18.1 24.9 121.8 68.5 57.8 4.4 10.8 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.0 13.7 23.0 115.1 65.4 55.6 4.6 6.0 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 6.6 15.3 23.7 121.4 69.0 57.6 5.2 13.5 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.3 13.4 22.3 110.7 63.4 54.1 6.1 8.9 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 19.1 19.3 25.6 102.5 58.5 53.7 9.1 16.6 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.5 11.3 21.2 119.4 65.0 57.6 1.8 7.4 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------