***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2012.-06.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 9.9 71.7 47.4 43.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 8.7 5.0 12.0 90.9 48.3 45.4 2.3 5.7 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 4.0 8.2 10.1 72.8 49.9 43.1 3.1 8.2 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.7 11.4 12.9 73.4 50.4 42.7 7.4 11.1 16.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.3 5.3 12.4 70.9 49.8 42.6 4.0 5.4 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.2 9.5 17.3 69.6 41.8 39.7 7.4 11.1 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.7 4.6 11.9 90.4 50.4 45.1 3.5 4.6 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 23.4 16.2 14.0 75.4 44.6 42.4 13.8 18.7 29.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.5 6.4 11.4 66.4 48.7 41.4 4.2 6.6 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 6.3 9.3 13.5 71.2 46.2 41.4 3.9 10.8 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 4.3 6.2 11.9 72.4 46.6 42.0 4.1 7.3 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 6.9 11.5 11.4 73.4 47.4 42.2 4.2 12.1 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.7 9.2 14.5 70.1 45.5 40.7 7.5 10.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 5.4 9.6 13.4 80.6 49.1 42.6 6.0 9.8 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 8.3 6.8 12.4 79.6 50.6 45.8 3.4 6.7 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.7 6.8 13.2 69.3 44.6 40.8 5.0 8.2 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.3 8.3 12.6 97.0 51.8 46.1 1.8 6.7 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.0 11.8 15.5 73.2 44.9 40.8 3.1 12.0 16.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.0 7.5 11.5 87.7 50.6 45.6 3.4 7.3 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 14.2 9.6 20.3 79.9 43.0 41.5 5.0 10.6 16.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.3 5.3 9.8 65.1 48.8 41.6 3.6 5.7 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.9 6.0 12.7 100.1 56.8 49.3 4.5 5.9 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 5.9 10.5 11.5 85.4 54.4 46.1 6.0 10.5 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 3.7 6.7 12.5 72.0 46.2 41.3 4.2 7.0 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.4 8.9 12.9 72.8 47.2 43.5 1.8 9.6 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 5.7 8.9 13.2 71.9 46.7 42.2 6.5 9.6 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.6 8.6 12.1 75.4 48.1 44.2 4.5 8.9 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 8.8 7.6 12.6 75.1 49.6 43.5 4.2 7.7 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 20.9 15.8 17.1 76.9 44.4 41.1 9.4 18.0 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.1 5.8 11.4 86.3 49.0 45.5 2.1 5.8 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------