***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2012.-29.04.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.9 68.0 42.4 39.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 1.5 2.7 5.8 56.6 36.6 34.7 2.0 4.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 5.2 9.1 7.3 64.5 38.4 38.3 6.1 10.5 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 6.4 10.1 10.1 62.5 38.9 36.1 4.4 12.0 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 3.4 6.0 9.7 59.7 35.8 35.5 5.8 8.6 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 3.6 3.1 10.7 56.4 35.1 32.5 2.9 7.3 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 2.5 4.0 6.3 59.7 36.6 34.5 3.0 5.8 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 7.8 7.7 8.8 48.7 25.3 27.7 11.7 16.5 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 4.1 6.0 8.6 57.4 36.0 34.7 5.4 9.1 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 3.8 5.6 9.5 54.1 30.8 32.4 6.0 9.0 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 3.4 4.8 8.9 57.5 40.5 36.0 3.4 6.6 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 2.3 3.9 7.8 50.5 31.8 29.7 4.1 7.8 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 4.2 2.8 10.0 55.4 35.3 31.2 2.3 9.3 16.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.1 7.3 9.3 63.9 37.8 36.5 6.9 9.3 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.9 3.2 9.8 65.5 44.9 38.1 1.8 5.3 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 3.5 4.1 9.5 55.8 37.4 32.3 3.8 7.1 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 2.9 4.3 5.5 56.7 37.3 32.8 3.0 6.2 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 5.6 5.6 10.6 57.5 34.3 33.3 5.3 11.5 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 2.3 4.4 6.0 57.3 36.2 35.1 3.9 5.4 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 4.3 4.9 9.4 46.2 24.5 23.9 6.7 8.9 11.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 5.0 5.9 8.0 61.3 38.6 36.6 4.7 9.6 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 1.9 3.6 5.7 56.7 37.5 32.0 3.3 5.4 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.6 6.0 7.1 63.0 40.6 38.4 4.5 7.1 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.9 6.5 9.8 63.8 39.3 37.3 5.7 8.3 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.3 5.1 11.7 75.0 41.2 40.9 3.3 7.2 19.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 2.3 3.4 9.4 53.7 34.3 30.5 3.1 5.1 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.5 7.0 10.1 72.5 42.8 40.3 3.0 8.2 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.5 3.9 9.5 59.8 42.9 35.6 1.8 5.0 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 6.1 7.1 10.0 53.9 31.7 30.2 7.3 11.2 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 2.8 3.2 6.4 60.3 36.7 36.7 2.7 6.5 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------