***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2012.-20.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 9999.0 0.0 21.6 1.2 78.5 73.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 23.9 24.8 21.7 1.3 84.1 75.0 20.8 22.0 23.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 23.7 24.3 21.8 1.3 80.0 72.9 21.1 22.1 23.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 15.6 15.8 19.6 1.2 75.0 71.7 13.8 14.3 15.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 23.3 23.6 20.0 1.2 74.7 71.7 21.2 22.2 23.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 21.4 21.8 17.8 1.4 78.1 73.3 19.9 20.4 21.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 23.8 24.5 21.6 1.3 83.6 75.0 20.5 21.6 22.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 11.1 11.5 18.3 1.3 78.4 72.8 8.8 10.2 10.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 22.7 23.2 20.5 1.3 75.3 72.2 20.7 21.4 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 22.5 22.9 19.2 1.4 78.8 73.1 20.7 21.3 22.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 22.8 23.2 19.6 1.3 76.8 72.1 21.1 21.4 22.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 21.8 22.3 19.0 1.3 76.4 71.8 20.0 20.7 21.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 22.7 23.2 18.6 1.3 76.9 71.6 20.9 21.4 22.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 23.4 24.0 20.4 1.3 79.7 73.4 21.0 21.8 23.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 23.2 23.8 20.3 1.3 77.8 73.4 21.0 21.9 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 23.3 23.7 19.2 1.2 75.7 71.6 21.4 22.3 23.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 23.3 24.2 21.6 1.4 86.5 76.3 20.1 21.4 22.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 22.1 22.6 18.5 1.4 80.2 74.1 20.1 20.9 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 23.3 24.3 21.8 1.3 82.9 74.7 20.4 21.2 23.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 17.4 17.9 16.1 1.3 80.5 73.3 15.3 16.4 17.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 23.2 23.6 21.3 1.2 76.0 71.8 20.9 21.8 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 23.7 24.8 21.5 1.3 84.0 75.4 20.7 21.9 23.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 23.6 24.1 21.7 1.3 82.0 74.2 21.2 22.2 23.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 22.8 23.2 20.3 1.3 79.8 73.5 20.6 21.5 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 23.3 23.8 20.1 1.2 77.8 72.5 20.8 22.0 22.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 21.9 22.2 18.2 1.2 75.7 70.9 20.1 21.1 22.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 23.2 23.8 20.9 1.2 80.0 73.7 20.8 21.7 22.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 23.0 23.5 19.9 1.2 76.0 71.9 20.9 22.0 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 17.5 18.0 17.5 1.4 80.6 74.3 15.2 16.1 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 23.8 24.5 21.8 1.3 83.5 74.5 20.7 21.8 22.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------