***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2012.-20.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 22.2 0.6 61.8 58.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 25.4 25.9 22.3 0.7 62.6 58.9 22.8 24.9 26.5 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 22.4 25.3 22.2 0.6 61.1 57.5 22.8 24.9 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 17.5 17.8 20.2 0.4 58.9 55.7 15.5 16.9 18.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 25.2 25.2 20.2 0.4 56.6 55.1 22.7 24.6 26.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 23.9 23.5 17.9 0.2 50.8 52.9 21.7 23.5 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 24.7 25.6 22.2 0.7 63.7 59.3 22.8 24.2 25.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.3 13.1 18.4 0.3 52.0 53.3 11.6 13.0 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 24.6 24.7 20.7 0.5 58.6 55.9 22.6 24.0 25.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 24.6 24.3 19.3 0.4 54.7 54.7 22.4 24.0 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 24.8 24.5 19.7 0.3 53.6 53.5 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 23.5 23.1 19.2 0.2 51.4 52.5 22.2 23.0 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 24.9 24.6 18.6 0.2 51.1 52.1 23.3 24.5 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 25.3 25.4 20.6 0.6 58.4 56.3 22.3 24.8 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 25.2 25.1 20.6 0.5 58.9 57.3 23.7 24.6 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 25.3 24.9 19.3 0.2 51.9 52.7 23.3 24.7 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 24.4 25.1 22.2 0.9 60.1 60.4 22.5 23.8 25.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 24.0 23.6 18.6 0.5 55.2 55.1 21.5 23.5 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 21.9 25.3 22.4 0.7 62.5 58.5 22.3 24.1 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 19.1 18.7 16.2 0.4 53.4 53.8 17.7 18.6 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 22.2 25.3 21.6 0.5 58.9 56.4 22.3 24.4 25.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 25.3 25.6 22.1 0.8 60.5 59.5 22.7 24.9 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 22.1 25.5 22.2 0.7 61.6 57.7 22.6 24.8 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 24.6 24.5 20.5 0.5 58.9 56.2 21.8 24.2 25.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 25.1 24.9 20.5 0.6 59.8 57.5 22.4 24.5 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 24.0 23.7 18.4 0.2 51.9 51.7 22.4 23.6 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 24.9 25.3 21.3 0.6 61.4 58.3 22.6 24.5 25.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 25.1 24.6 20.3 0.4 56.2 55.1 22.3 24.4 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.0 18.9 17.6 0.5 55.1 54.8 17.0 18.4 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 25.0 25.7 22.4 0.7 63.5 58.6 22.4 24.4 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------