***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2012.-13.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 0.0 20.0 -0.8 36.8 42.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 20.8 22.3 20.0 -0.6 45.2 45.4 21.4 22.6 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 20.7 21.4 20.0 -0.8 37.6 42.5 20.8 22.8 24.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 13.6 14.3 18.4 -0.7 41.4 42.3 13.6 14.8 17.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 21.0 20.7 18.4 -0.8 36.6 42.2 20.5 22.9 24.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 19.4 20.6 16.6 -0.4 43.3 44.7 19.5 21.1 22.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 20.2 21.4 20.0 -0.6 45.0 45.4 20.8 21.8 23.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 8.5 10.0 16.8 -0.7 43.9 42.8 8.5 10.6 12.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 20.2 20.1 18.8 -0.8 35.9 42.3 19.9 22.3 23.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 20.0 20.7 17.5 -0.7 40.8 42.5 19.9 21.9 23.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 20.4 20.6 18.0 -0.7 40.4 42.8 20.1 22.2 23.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 19.7 20.6 17.7 -0.6 43.3 43.2 19.5 21.3 22.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 20.3 21.4 17.2 -0.6 43.0 43.2 20.4 22.3 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 20.7 22.2 18.4 -0.9 37.2 42.4 21.8 22.6 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 20.7 21.8 18.9 -0.5 46.4 44.6 21.0 22.1 24.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 21.2 21.9 17.8 -0.6 41.9 43.1 20.9 23.1 24.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 20.0 21.1 19.9 -0.5 46.3 47.1 20.7 21.2 23.2 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 19.8 19.8 16.7 -0.8 38.2 42.0 19.5 21.8 22.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 20.4 21.3 20.1 -0.7 43.5 44.8 21.0 22.3 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 14.6 15.9 14.5 -0.8 41.8 40.9 15.5 16.3 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 20.3 20.2 19.5 -0.8 33.9 41.6 20.1 22.6 23.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 20.7 21.8 19.8 -0.6 45.6 46.2 21.6 21.8 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 20.7 21.7 19.9 -0.8 39.6 43.6 21.2 22.7 23.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 20.3 20.8 18.4 -0.8 36.1 42.1 20.5 22.2 23.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 20.3 21.1 18.5 -0.8 37.4 41.8 20.5 21.8 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 19.8 20.7 17.0 -0.6 38.8 42.8 20.0 21.4 23.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 20.2 20.4 19.2 -0.7 37.4 42.3 20.3 22.2 23.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 20.8 21.7 18.7 -0.6 44.2 43.2 20.9 22.1 24.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 14.8 15.1 15.7 -0.8 38.2 41.4 14.8 16.7 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 20.5 21.7 20.1 -0.7 43.9 44.3 20.7 22.3 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------