***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2012.-06.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9999.0 0.0 22.3 2.1 77.2 70.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 23.5 23.9 22.5 2.2 77.8 71.7 21.1 22.5 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 23.5 23.9 22.4 2.1 76.3 69.5 21.0 22.4 23.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 16.2 16.7 20.3 1.8 76.1 68.0 12.9 14.9 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 23.1 23.2 20.5 1.9 75.3 68.1 20.5 22.5 23.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 21.8 22.2 18.4 2.0 77.0 69.0 18.9 20.2 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 23.3 23.8 22.4 2.3 78.3 72.2 20.9 22.1 22.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 10.8 11.3 18.9 2.0 76.2 68.5 8.3 9.4 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 22.9 23.0 21.0 2.0 76.0 68.7 20.0 22.1 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 22.6 22.8 19.8 2.0 75.6 68.6 20.3 22.0 22.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 22.8 22.8 20.1 1.9 74.8 68.2 20.5 22.0 22.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 22.1 22.4 19.7 1.9 75.7 68.3 19.3 20.6 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 22.9 23.2 19.1 2.0 75.6 68.6 20.3 21.5 22.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 23.2 23.4 21.0 2.1 77.0 68.7 20.7 22.2 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 23.1 23.3 20.6 1.9 76.7 69.2 20.6 21.7 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 23.2 23.3 19.7 1.9 75.1 68.0 21.1 22.2 22.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 22.9 23.5 22.4 2.4 78.7 72.9 20.4 21.5 22.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 22.2 22.5 19.2 2.1 76.8 68.7 19.5 21.3 21.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 23.2 23.6 22.6 2.2 77.2 70.9 20.5 22.2 23.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 17.4 18.1 16.9 2.1 78.4 69.1 14.2 16.0 16.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 22.9 23.1 21.8 2.0 76.5 68.8 20.8 22.4 22.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 23.5 24.0 22.3 2.3 78.3 71.6 20.6 22.3 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 23.4 23.6 22.4 2.1 76.0 69.9 20.5 22.5 23.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 22.6 22.9 20.9 2.1 76.4 68.6 20.2 21.8 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 23.0 23.2 20.7 2.0 77.5 69.7 20.5 22.3 22.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 22.2 22.7 18.9 1.9 74.9 68.7 19.1 20.5 21.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 23.1 23.3 21.5 2.1 77.4 70.9 20.9 22.2 22.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 23.4 24.0 20.4 1.8 76.5 67.8 20.5 21.8 22.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 17.0 17.3 18.2 2.1 77.5 68.9 14.0 16.0 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 23.3 23.7 22.5 2.2 77.0 71.1 21.0 22.3 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------