***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2012.-20.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 9999.0 0.0 11.4 1.0 79.6 73.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 10.8 11.1 11.3 1.0 79.2 73.7 9.5 10.0 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 12.5 12.8 11.1 0.8 77.6 71.7 11.0 11.5 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 7.6 8.0 9.1 0.8 78.9 72.7 5.8 6.6 7.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 9.0 9.2 9.0 0.7 75.0 69.5 7.8 8.4 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 7.8 8.0 7.0 0.7 73.7 69.4 6.5 7.1 7.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 10.7 10.9 11.4 1.0 78.9 74.2 9.4 10.0 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 3.0 3.2 7.0 0.6 75.2 68.6 1.6 2.2 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 9.6 9.8 9.3 0.7 75.4 68.5 8.6 9.1 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 9.7 9.8 7.8 0.6 74.8 68.3 8.6 9.0 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 9.2 9.3 8.3 0.6 71.8 66.7 8.2 8.9 9.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 7.6 7.8 7.8 0.6 74.1 67.1 6.8 7.1 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 8.8 8.8 7.3 0.5 66.6 64.1 7.9 8.4 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 10.4 10.4 9.3 0.6 72.6 67.9 9.3 9.7 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 10.3 10.6 9.9 0.9 80.5 74.5 9.4 9.9 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 10.2 10.4 8.0 0.5 70.2 65.8 9.1 9.5 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 11.0 11.3 11.1 1.0 81.2 74.5 9.8 10.2 10.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 7.8 7.9 7.1 0.6 73.9 67.9 6.7 7.3 7.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 17 83 100 10.7 10.9 11.2 0.9 77.6 72.7 9.5 9.7 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 4.4 4.4 5.2 0.6 73.9 68.3 3.4 3.9 4.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 9.7 9.9 10.5 0.8 76.8 70.7 8.7 9.0 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 10.1 10.1 11.0 0.9 75.3 72.2 8.8 9.5 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 10.3 10.5 10.8 0.8 75.1 70.8 9.0 9.4 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 9.8 10.0 9.0 0.6 74.9 68.3 8.9 9.1 9.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 10.3 10.8 10.1 1.0 79.6 74.0 9.1 9.5 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 8.8 8.7 7.4 0.6 69.8 66.4 7.6 8.2 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 11.2 11.6 10.7 1.0 80.3 74.5 9.3 9.7 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 8.4 8.5 9.4 0.8 78.6 72.8 7.4 8.1 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 7.2 7.1 6.3 0.5 72.0 66.3 5.9 6.4 7.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 11.0 11.3 11.4 1.0 78.5 73.3 9.5 10.0 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------