***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2012.-20.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 12.0 0.2 54.4 53.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.3 12.0 0.1 52.7 52.7 10.3 12.0 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 14.1 13.6 11.7 0.0 49.9 50.8 12.4 13.6 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.4 9.0 10.0 0.1 52.9 52.7 7.5 8.9 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.1 9.5 9.8 0.0 48.9 50.4 9.1 9.5 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 9.4 9.3 8.0 0.2 55.7 55.3 8.5 9.2 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 12.3 12.0 12.0 0.1 52.7 52.8 10.4 11.8 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 4.7 4.4 7.8 0.0 48.6 51.6 3.4 4.4 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.0 10.1 0.0 48.4 50.2 10.5 11.0 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.2 8.6 0.0 47.8 50.5 10.1 11.2 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 11.1 10.8 9.2 -0.1 49.1 50.3 9.9 10.9 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 9.5 9.2 8.7 0.0 49.1 50.9 8.0 9.2 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 10.6 10.4 8.3 0.0 51.7 52.0 9.6 10.4 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.4 9.9 -0.1 47.8 49.2 10.8 11.6 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.7 10.7 0.3 55.6 55.9 10.8 11.4 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 11.8 11.3 8.9 0.0 50.4 51.3 10.2 11.3 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.4 11.8 0.2 54.3 53.9 10.8 12.0 13.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.6 7.9 -0.1 47.9 50.3 8.0 9.6 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.2 11.9 0.1 51.3 52.1 10.6 12.0 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 5.7 5.5 6.0 0.1 50.2 53.0 4.3 5.5 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.0 11.1 0.0 48.8 50.9 10.3 11.2 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.9 11.7 0.2 51.7 53.4 9.7 11.2 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.0 11.5 0.0 48.5 50.6 10.4 11.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.0 9.7 -0.1 46.9 49.1 9.9 11.3 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.9 10.6 0.2 53.7 54.0 10.2 11.6 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 10.6 10.3 8.4 0.0 52.3 52.4 8.7 10.3 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.2 11.3 0.2 55.6 53.7 10.8 11.9 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.0 10.0 10.3 0.1 54.2 53.6 8.8 9.8 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.4 7.1 0.0 49.7 51.6 7.8 8.4 8.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 12.3 11.9 12.0 0.1 52.1 52.5 10.7 11.9 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------